Fact Check: Will the U.S. Really Hold 40% of All Bitcoin by 2025?

A chart doing the rounds on X says the United States will hold 7.8 million Bitcoin by the end of 2025,  around 40% of the total supply. It also places India second, with 1 million BTC, or 5.1% of global holdings.

The claim has picked up attention fast. But does the data match reality?

Let’s analyse. 

Tracing the Claim’s Origin

The image, shared by investor Fred Krueger, breaks down Bitcoin ownership by country and category. 

“Bitcoin is mainly a US thing,” he wrote. “India is the surprise number 2. Europe is really not involved.”

But the chart doesn’t mention any source for these figures. And not everyone is convinced.

“The source data looks unrealistic, not sure how they cooked that up, but it’s not good data I’d say,” said Blockstream CEO, in response to the tweet.

How Much Bitcoin Does the U.S. Actually Hold?

Let’s break it down using verified numbers from BitcoinTreasuries.net:

• U.S. government: 198,022 BTC
• Public companies (like MicroStrategy, MARA): 876,517 BTC
• Private companies: 188,105 BTC
• U.S.-based ETFs: 1,342,715 BTC

That brings the total to around 2.6 million BTC which is about 13.3% of all Bitcoin currently in circulation. This is not even close to 40%. 

What About Retail Investors?

Triple-A’s 2023 data shows that 13% of Americans own crypto. Bitcoin is the most popular asset. But even if every retail holder had a piece of BTC, it would not add up to 7.8 million coins.

Is the U.S. Bitcoin Lead Unbeatable?

As of now, no other region comes close to matching the U.S. in total BTC holdings.

Europe holds around 900,000 BTC, just 4.6% of the supply, with a mix of retail and institutional ownership. According to Fred Krueger, “Europe is really not involved.”

China’s government holds about 194,000 BTC, mostly seized and inactive. 

In Latin America and broader Asia, Bitcoin adoption is growing at the grassroots level, but regional totals sit at just 400,000 BTC each, around 2.1%.

Even combined, these markets don’t challenge the U.S. on volume but they do remind us that Bitcoin is widely distributed, not easily concentrated.

India at 1 Million BTC? Unlikely.

India is growing fast in crypto adoption but not at this scale.

Holding 1 million BTC would translate to around $120 billion in value, which is a steep target for India, where average retail holdings remain low and regulatory uncertainty is immense. 

Despite growing interest, lack of clear guidelines and tax complexities still pose major hurdles for large-scale adoption.

Final Verdict

The numbers being shared on social media are misleading for now. The U.S. does hold a large share of Bitcoin but it’s closer to 13%, not 40%.