Bitcoin has crossed $75,000, and Gold is approaching $4,800. Both are rising, but analyst Michaël van de Poppe says the number worth paying attention to right now isn’t either of those prices. It’s the ratio between them.
And that ratio is telling a story that has only been told four times in Bitcoin’s history.
The Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio measures how many ounces of gold it takes to A rare BTC/Gold signal has appeared just 4 times in Bitcoin history. Each time, BTC surged. Analyst van de Poppe breaks down what happens next.. At its peak in September 2025, that ratio sat at 36. By February 2026, it had collapsed to 12 – a 66% crash in five months.
“The recent correction of BTC vs. Gold is the heaviest in the history of Bitcoin,” van de Poppe wrote in his analysis published today.
He identifies this as a two-standard deviation outlier – the kind of extreme statistical reading that has only appeared at four specific moments in Bitcoin’s existence: the 2015 bear market bottom after the Mt. Gox crash, the March 2020 COVID crash, the November 2022 bottom after FTX collapsed, and now.
Also Read: Top Crypto Market Events This Week: PPI, BlackRock, CLARITY Act, Fed Speeches
The results are consistent. After the 2022 bottom, Bitcoin returned 44% in three months and 131% in twelve. After the 2020 COVID crash, it returned 90% in three months and 1,100% in twelve.
Across all four events, the averages stack up as follows: 45% after three months, 120% after six months, 370% after twelve.
“This is the general moment every cycle that you’d want to get allocated into an asset,” he said. “Almost everyone is currently busy being distracted by all the events that are happening in the world. That’s completely fine, but that’s not how investing actually works.”
With Bitcoin at $75,490 today – up 10.64% on the week – van de Poppe says the short-term target sits between $87,500 and $90,000 within three months. By Q3 or Q4 of this year, he places a realistic price range of $115,000 to $125,000. His view on 2027 is that it will be a full bull market year for Bitcoin.
Gold is simultaneously trading near $4,799, up 49% over the past year.
Van de Poppe argues that Bitcoin’s performance since the Iran war began has actually started to exceed gold’s and that this shift reinforces the longer-term thesis.
Also Read: The Worst Week for Gold in 43 Years Just Made the Strongest Case for Bitcoin
The ratio crashed 66% in five months. Every previous time it fell this hard, the twelve months that followed were extraordinary.
At a current price of $121.17, Solana (SOL) is up 3.55% on the day and…
Three altcoins are sitting near levels that could quickly turn another rally into fresh all-time…
Veteran trader Peter Brandt is standing firm on his long-held skepticism about XRP, even as…
XRP has pulled back roughly 5%, falling from a local high of $1.66 to around…
The Bitget hack has turned into a much bigger security incident than the exchange's first…
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao has an answer to whether his tweets move crypto markets, no,…
