Fed’s QT Could Delay Major ETH Rally Until 2025, Warns Analyst

Donald Trump’s tariff war and pause theory have created a rollercoaster of effects in the crypto market. One moment, Ethereum was on a roll—pushing past $1,550 and briefly touching $1,687. The next, it lost momentum and slipped below key resistance levels, now trading under $1,580. It’s a classic case of “so close, yet so far.”

But why is Ethereum struggling to hold its ground? As a new bearish trend line forms, bulls are under pressure to either break through or brace for a drop toward the $1,500 zone.

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen thinks there’s more to the story—and it may go deeper than just price charts. Let’s dive in.

Cowen Sees 2019 Pattern Repeating

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen believes Ethereum’s recent struggles aren’t random. In his latest YouTube video, he points out that ETH is repeating a similar pattern from 2019—but with a twist. This time, the cycle is taking longer to play out. According to Cowen, the slowdown is largely due to macroeconomic pressure, especially the extended period of quantitative tightening (QT) by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Quantitative Tightening: The Hidden Weight on ETH

QT is when the Federal Reserve reduces its balance sheet to tighten the money supply—usually to control inflation. While this might be good for the economy long-term, it creates a tough environment for risk assets like Ethereum. In the previous market cycle, QT ended before Bitcoin’s halving, which gave the crypto market room to grow. But this time, QT has continued even after the halving, adding more pressure.

Fed May End QT by Mid-2025 – Will That Help ETH?

Cowen highlights a January summary from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which suggests the Fed could end QT by mid-2025. If that timeline holds, Ethereum might start gaining strength again once more liquidity returns to the market. Until then, Cowen warns that ETH may continue to lag behind faster-moving and more speculative altcoins.

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Ethereum Price Outlook

At the time of Cowen’s video, Ethereum was trading around $1,652, showing a 12% gain in the last 24 hours. Still, ETH has struggled to outperform the wider crypto market. With bearish trend lines, strong resistance levels, and the weight of economic policy, Ethereum is finding it hard to lead the current cycle.

To sum it up, Cowen doesn’t see Ethereum’s slow movement as a failure of the asset. Instead, he sees it as a result of ongoing economic tightening. If the Fed sticks to its plan and ends QT in 2025, Ethereum could finally have space to grow. Until then, it’s all about staying patient.

Patience, it seems, is the new ‘hodl’.

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