Ethereum’s recent price movements have traders on alert. Will it follow patterns from 2016 and 2019, or is something new unfolding? Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says key levels in the ETH/BTC and ETH/USD pairs are sending mixed signals, leaving traders uncertain about what’s next.
Is a breakout coming, or could further drops be ahead? Let’s explore.
A good starting point is Ethereum’s performance against Bitcoin (ETH/BTC). Recently, ETH’s Bitcoin pair dropped below the 0.04 mark, a sign that market sentiment might be shifting. Historically, when ETH/BTC breaks down, it often bottoms out within 8-10 weeks. The recent low in ETH/BTC fits within that timeframe, suggesting a bottom could be near or even already in place.
However, Cowen warns of conflicting signals. For example, ETH/BTC previously bottomed when the Federal Reserve shifted from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE), a move that hasn’t occurred yet.
This raises the possibility that ETH/BTC might find a temporary bounce, only to revisit lower levels before a sustained recovery.
On the other hand, Cowen points out that ETH/USD has been closely following the patterns from 2016 and 2019. In both years, the first quarter was positive, followed by a dip in April and a recovery in May. Similarly, 2024 saw a sluggish summer, with June, July, and August being red months, much like 2016 and 2019.
If this pattern holds, Ethereum could finish September in the green. But the big question remains—will ETH follow the last phase of the 2016 pattern? Back then, Ethereum had three red months (October, November, and December) before surging in the following year.
Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading at $2,673 after a strong 10% rally over the past ten days, breaking its dull performance since the August 5 crash. But can this momentum last?
Traders should keep an eye on the $2,702 resistance level, which is the high from September 23. If Ethereum struggles to break above it, a pullback could happen. However, with October historically being a strong month, a dip might provide a buying opportunity, potentially leading to a retest of the $2,820 level.
The future of Ethereum’s price remains a mystery. Only time will tell.
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