Ethereum at a Make-or-Break Level — Will May Trigger Another Explosive Rally?

Ethereum ended April on a solid note, posting a 7.3% gain and marking its second consecutive green month. This steady recovery is now drawing attention to May, historically one of Ethereum’s strongest months. In 2024, ETH surged 25%, followed by an even sharper 41% rally in 2025.

Resistance at $2,375

According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, Ethereum is currently testing the top of its channel near $2,375, a level that has repeatedly acted as strong resistance.

In previous attempts, ETH has been rejected from this zone, pulling the price back toward lower support levels. If history repeats, a failure here could send Ethereum back toward the $2,210 support region, which marks the lower boundary of the channel.

However, there’s a shift in tone this time. As Martinez notes, repeated tests of resistance tend to weaken it. With Ethereum now approaching what appears to be a fourth test, the market is entering a decisive phase.

Breakout Could Send ETH to $2,550

If Ethereum manages a strong daily close above $2,375, it could trigger a bullish breakout. Martinez points to a potential 7% upside move, targeting the next structural resistance around $2,550.

Market sentiment also finds support from institutional activity. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $23.5 million in net inflows last week, with major contributions from Grayscale’s ETHE. This suggests growing institutional interest, even as price consolidates.

Supply Crunch Building Under the Surface

On-chain data adds another layer to the story. Ethereum exchange reserves have dropped to around 14.5 million ETH, the lowest level on record. Over 1.5 million ETH has been withdrawn from exchanges in the past four months alone.

This shrinking supply means there’s less ETH available for selling, reducing downward pressure. While this doesn’t guarantee an immediate breakout, it creates a setup where any strong demand could push prices sharply higher due to thinner liquidity.

Decision Zone Ahead

Overall, Ethereum now sits at a crucial inflection point. A breakout above $2,375 could open the door to $2,550 and potentially extend May’s bullish trend. 

But failure here risks another pullback toward $2,210. Either way, the next move could be decisive.