Brent crude oil has jumped more than 10% in the past two days, while Bitcoin has fallen nearly 6%. This happened just when the U.S-Iran shoot missile on each other, raising tensions at the Strait of Hormuz.
Now, CryptoQuant warns that if oil prices keep rising, Bitcoin could face more downside pressure.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, Brent crude oil has shown an inverse relationship with Bitcoin over the long term.
Darkfost says that whenever Brent crude trades above its 365-day average, it often signals growing economic stress. Higher oil prices usually mean rising inflation, slower economic growth, and tighter financial conditions, reducing demand for assets like Bitcoin.
Darkfost said this relationship is not new.
Comparing Bitcoin with Brent crude over the past decade, he found that Bitcoin has often struggled whenever oil entered a strong uptrend.
“When the Brent price starts rising again, it means the music is starting to stop,” implying a slowdown in Bitcoin’s bullish trend.
The Bitcoin vs. Brent crude oil chart shows that similar setups have appeared several times over the past few years.
During the 2018 bear market, Brent crude traded above its annual average while Bitcoin continued falling nearly 80% from around $17,000 to below $3,500.
A similar pattern appeared in 2022, when oil surged above $120 after the Russia-Ukraine conflict. During the same period, Bitcoin dropped from nearly $48,000 to below $16,000, losing around 65% of its value.
Again in 2024, another rise in Brent crude above its yearly trend coincided with Bitcoin losing momentum after reaching a new high in Oct 2025.
The current setup looks similar, with Brent crude once again moving above its long-term trend while Bitcoin is correcting from its recent highs.
Just one day after the conflict started again between the U.S and Iran, President Donald Trump said Iran wants to make a deal now.
Speaking to the reporters, Trump said, “They (Iran) want to make a deal. They want to make a deal badly.”
However, he also questioned whether Tehran could be trusted again,
“I just don’t know if they are worth making a deal; I don’t know if they’re gonna honour this deal.”
Following Trump’s statement, Brent crude oil fell around 2% to nearly $72 per barrel, while Bitcoin rebounded close to $63,000, rising about 1.2%. This clearly shows how related Bitcoin and Oil prices are to each other.
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