Bitcoin and the broader crypto market continue to face extreme pressure with Bitcoin slipping below the $85K mark. Markets are in extreme fear, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropping below 10. With many wondering if crypto has officially entered the bear market, analysts are closely watching for further declines, with some predicting Bitcoin could fall as low as $60K.
Is all hope lost? Here’s another cautious but optimistic view.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju notes that for Bitcoin spot holders, not futures traders, the current levels could be a reasonable zone for long-term accumulation.
From an on-chain cycle perspective, he explains that the recent bull cycle technically ended earlier this year when Bitcoin reached around $100K. According to the classical cycle theory, the market should revisit the realized price near $56K to form a cyclical bottom.
However, Ju believes that it may not happen since institutional holders like Michael Saylor’s Strategy, are unlikely to sell. This takes a significant portion of coins off the market.
He also pointed to broader macroeconomic factors, suggesting that governments may continue injecting liquidity until mid-next year for political reasons. So the sentiment could rebound anytime and therefore selling or shorting now is a potentially risky move according to the analyst.
Although Ju admits that he does not use leverage and is not focused on timing exact entry points, he is confident in Bitcoin’s long-term growth. Ju also clarified that while the on-chain bull cycle for Bitcoin has technically ended, the overall bull market is not over. The macroeconomic conditions can quickly change market trends as seen earlier this year.
So while short-term volatility may seem intense, this view suggests that these dips could be a prime opportunity for long-term holders to accumulate and prepare for the next cycle.
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley also shared his take on the current crypto market, calling it a period of consolidation.
In his view, right now, high-conviction investors are buying assets from low conviction investors. For instance, one investor might see Bitcoin or Solana and decide to sell, while another investor sees the same price and sees it as a strong opportunity to buy, happily taking it as their cost basis.
According to Horsley, the lower the price goes during this phase, the more confident the new holders become, and that is a positive sign for the market.
Once the consolidation phase is complete, it leaves the market with a refreshed base of investors who have stronger conviction in their holdings, setting the stage for the next growth cycle.
Bitcoin is under pressure, but many analysts say it’s not a confirmed bear market yet. Market cycles and macro trends still leave room for recovery.
The on-chain bull cycle may have cooled, but analysts say the macro bull market isn’t over. Shifts in liquidity could quickly revive momentum.
Large institutions holding Bitcoin long-term reduce sell pressure, limiting steep declines and supporting price stability in volatile periods.
Consolidation means strong holders are buying from weaker ones, building a more confident investor base that often fuels the next market cycle.
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