Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize near the $78,000 level after recent heavy selling, but data from CryptoQuant suggests whales may still be preparing for more distribution instead of a major breakout.
As of now Bitcoin is trading around $77,822, recovering roughly 1.4% over the past 24 hours after last week’s broader crypto market decline.
According to CryptoQuant verified analyst Woominkyu, whale wallets have been following a clear three-stage trading pattern over the past 20 days, accumulation near local lows followed by steady selling into strength.
The first phase began between May 1 and May 4, when Bitcoin traded close to the $78,000 region. During that period, large holders quietly removed BTC from exchanges while retail traders remained cautious.
CryptoQuant data showed roughly 6,590 BTC left exchanges on May 4 alone, signaling accumulation from whales expecting a short-term rebound. That buying phase helped support Bitcoin’s rally toward a local high near $82,196 during the following week.
However, according to Woominkyu, whale behavior quickly shifted once Bitcoin pushed higher. Between May 5 and May 12, large holders began moving coins back onto exchanges, a classic signal that smart money may be taking profits while retail traders turn bullish. The selling pressure continued through the second half of May.
Although whales briefly pulled roughly 8,059 BTC off exchanges again on May 15, the broader exchange reserve trend still points upward.
CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin exchange reserves climbed from around 2.677 million BTC to nearly 2.696 million BTC, the highest level recorded this month. One of the largest movements happened on May 18, when whales reportedly transferred 8,063 BTC back onto exchanges within a single day.
Woominkyu believes the current whale activity suggests Bitcoin remains stuck between accumulation and distribution rather than entering a strong breakout phase.
The analyst warned that rising exchange balances usually increase short-term selling pressure because more BTC becomes available for trading.
Meanwhile, crypto analyst Ali Martinez identified $77,800 as the key breakout level to watch. A confirmed move above that range could send Bitcoin toward $79,000, while rejection may push BTC back toward support zones near $76,900 and $76,000.
For now, on-chain data suggests whales are still actively rotating positions near the $77K–$81K range instead of committing to aggressive long-term accumulation.
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