The second quarter of 2025 has been kind to Bitcoin. Since April 1, the market leader has climbed 30.2 %, buoyed by a 14.2 % gain in April, an 11.1 % jump in May, and a further 2.6 % rise so far in June. The rally carried price from $104,544 at the start of the month to about $107,370 today, briefly tagging new cycle highs near $107 K.
| Period | Price Change |
| April 2025 | +14.2 % |
| May 2025 | +11.1 % |
| June-to-date | +2.6 % |
| Q2-to-date | +30.2 % |
According to Deribit’s Chief Commercial Officer Jean-David Pequignot, one of the year’s biggest expiries hits the tape this Friday. Roughly $15.2 B in BTC options 38 % of the entire $40 B open interest, will settle at once.
The “max-pain” level, where the highest number of contracts expire worthless, sits at $102,000. Prices often drift toward this magnet because market makers who sell options profit most if Bitcoin lands there at expiry.
Options data still leans cautiously bullish:
Yet those expectations can change quickly when billions in contracts roll off.
$105 K: The Line in the Sand
Technical traders are laser-focused on $105,000. It has acted as first-line support throughout June:
Bitcoin’s 30 % quarter has impressed even hardened bulls, but the real test comes with Friday’s mega-expiry. Stay alert, whether BTC defends $105K or succumbs to max-pain gravity will likely set the tone for the rest of the summer.
A Bitcoin options expiry is the date when options contracts (the right to buy or sell Bitcoin at a set price) terminate. It matters because large expiries often trigger increased volatility as traders close positions and prices can be “pinned” to the max-pain level, where most contracts expire worthless.
Market makers aim to minimize their losses from options contracts they’ve sold. They achieve this by strategically buying or selling Bitcoin to steer its price towards the “max-pain” level at expiry, where their net payout from options is lowest.
Upcoming expiries, especially large ones like Friday’s $15.2 billion event, could cause significant short-term price swings. The unwinding of hedges and market makers’ actions around “max-pain” points are likely to dictate periods of heightened volatility throughout the summer.
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