Crypto Market Outlook This Week as Fed Rate Decision and US GDP Data Loom

The crypto market is heading into a busy week as the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and the major U.S. economic reports are lined up for this week. Meanwhile, the global crypto market cap is feeling the pressure as it stands at $2.75 trillion, down 1.6% in the past 24 hours, while Bitcoin has fallen below $80,000. 

Key U.S. Events This Week To Watch

• 28 October: Fed Meeting and Rate Decision

The Federal Open Market Committee’s rate meeting on 27 – 28 October will be the first major event to watch. At its September meeting, the Fed raised the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75%–4%, for the first time in more than three years.

However, CME FedWatch data suggests an 88% chance of no rate change this time. Earlier Coinpedia news reported that New York Fed President John Williams said there is no urgency to raise rates again immediately.

For now, traders will watch Chair Kevin Warsh’s press briefing for clues about the next policy move.

29 October: September PCE Inflation data & Initial Jobless Claims

Attention will then turn to September’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report scheduled for October 29, 2026. It is expected to show a rise in inflation following recent increases in consumer and producer prices.

Headline PCE inflation is expected to rise to 3.6% year over year from 3.4% in August. Monthly PCE is forecast at 0.5%, while core PCE is expected to increase 0.3% month over month and 3.1% annually.

Along with it, we’ve Initial jobless claims data for the week is also scheduled to release simultaneously. Last week Claims fell to 194,000 ending October 17 and are now expected to rise to 198,000.

• 29 October: U.S. Q3 2026 GDP Data

Another very important data to release this week is the U.S third quarter 2026 GDP growth report. Economists expect the U.S. economy to grow at an annual rate of 3.0% to 3.2%, up from 2.2% in the second quarter.

$12B Bitcoin Options Expiry Adds to Volatility in the Market

Lastly, the week will end with an options expiry on Friday, bringing another potential source of volatility, as approximately $11.1 billion to $12.2 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire. As of now, Bitcoin is trading near $79,921, with $78,000 serving as a key support level.

Ethereum also faces an options expiry, with 322,586 contracts worth around $777 million set to expire. The reported max pain price is $2,500, while ETH is trading below $2,300.