Many crypto traders were hoping for a rate cut in September, but Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s latest comments have weakened those expectations. The chance of a cut has now dropped to just 43%.
Now that crypto prices are falling, many are asking: Is the bull run slowing down or just taking a short break?.
During his recent press conference, Powell made it clear We remain highly attentive to inflation risks,” emphasizing a wait-and-see stance until the next FOMC meeting on September 17-18, 2025.
Fed’s biggest concern is the growing inflation, which rose to 2.7% year-over-year in June, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 0.3% month-over-month, surpassing the Fed’s 2% target.
Simultaneously, unemployment has held steady at 4.2%, leaving little room for the Fed to justify a cut unless economic conditions deteriorate further.
Interestingly, two Fed members supported a rate cut this time, which hasn’t happened in decades. That could be a sign that pressure is building inside the Fed for a shift soon.
Before the press conference, there was a 63% chance of a September rate cut. But after Powell’s speech, that number dropped to 43% according to the CME Fed watch tool.
Traditionally, lower interest rates usually boost crypto by pushing investors toward riskier assets like Bitcoin. A delay in rate cuts may slow crypto’s growth, but it won’t likely cause a major drop.
Still, others argue that as long as liquidity stays high, the crypto market won’t suffer much.
Adding uncertainty is the beginning of the most bearish month of the calendar. As Bitcoin is heading into its two weakest months, August and September. Over the past 12 years, it dropped in 8 out of 12 Augusts and two-thirds of Septembers. On average, it drops by 8.6% and 4.6% during this month, respectively.
Right now, Bitcoin is stuck between $116,000 and $119,000, showing no clear direction.
With slow price action and no strong boost from the Fed yet, the crypto market may stay quiet for now.
Lower rates typically boost crypto by encouraging risk-taking, but delayed cuts may slow growth without causing major price crashes.
Yes – analysts note strong market liquidity could sustain prices even if the Fed delays easing monetary policy in September.
The Fed is focused on controlling inflation, which hit 2.7% year-over-year in June, above its 2% target, delaying rate cut decisions.
Not necessarily. While prices are cooling and Fed delays cuts, high liquidity and seasonal patterns suggest a short-term pause, not a full reversal.
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