TD Cowen Predicts U.S. Crypto Regulations by 2026, but Here’s the Problem

The long wait for clear cryptocurrency regulations in the U.S. may soon be over.

TD Cowen forecasts that the government could finalize its crypto regulations by 2026, bringing much-needed certainty to investors and businesses. However, the road to this milestone is far from smooth. With political divides deepening and unexpected distractions – like the rise of the TRUMP memecoin – on the horizon, the path to clarity could face more twists and turns than anticipated.

Read on to explore how these developments might shape the market.

Why Crypto Regulations Are Crucial?

A note from TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group, led by Jaret Seiberg, highlighted the importance of bipartisan support in advancing the crypto market structure bill. 

The lack of clear regulations has slowed the growth of the crypto market in the U.S. Without legal certainty, investors are hesitant to commit, and businesses face operational challenges. To unlock the sector’s potential, resolving these regulatory gray areas is essential. However, political divides could delay these vital changes.

Impact of the TRUMP Memecoin

One unexpected factor complicating crypto legislation is the launch of the TRUMP memecoin. Introduced just before President Donald Trump Donald Trump   Donald J. Trump is a US-based entrepreneur, Pro-crypto Politician, and the 45th and 47th President of the United States of America. He understands the importance and needs of the modern fintech world, and people look up to him as a dominant pro-crypto leader.   Quick Facts   Full name Donald John Trump Birth 14-06-1946, New York, United States Nationality American Education BS from the University of Pennsylvania Known For Businessman, Pro-Crypto Politician   Once doubtful about Bitcoindominance, he said in a tweet in 2019, “I am not a fan of Bitcoin", but now has a significant amount of cryptocurrency holdings in his kitty. He has also signed an Executive Order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which highlights his commitment to the future of cryptocurrency.   Donald Trump - Career Highlights & Events   2016 – Elected as the 45th President of the United States from the Republican Party.   2017 – Signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, impacting investment environments   2019 – Criticized Bitcoin and Libra on X, dubbing them as "not money"   2024 – Campaign signals potential openness to crypto-friendly reforms   2025 –  Elected as the 47th President of the United States from the Republican Party.   A meme coin, $TRUMP, is associated with Donald Trump, which is listed on the Solana blockchain platform. His family also backs World Liberty Financial (WLF), a crypto venture.     President ’s inauguration, the coin saw an initial market cap of over $14 billion but has since lost nearly half its value. It now trades around $42, with a market cap of $8 billion.

TD Cowen analysts warn that the TRUMP memecoin could worsen partisan tensions in Washington, further delaying progress on crypto regulations.

Democrats are expected to investigate whether foreign entities have used the coin to influence U.S. politics, while Republicans are likely to defend Trump, making it harder to build the bipartisan cooperation needed to move forward.

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•   $TRUMP Memecoin Soars Then Crashes: ‘I Launched It, That’s All I Know”
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Why the Memecoin Was a Bad Idea

The TRUMP token has drawn criticism from both the crypto community and policymakers, with many arguing that it distracts from the industry’s broader goals and could harm its reputation.

Still, Jaret Seiberg’s team at TD Cowen stresses that bipartisan cooperation remains essential for passing crypto legislation.

The path to comprehensive crypto regulations is far from straightforward, but the industry’s determination for clarity remains strong. Let’s see how it all plays out.