TD Cowen Predicts U.S. Crypto Regulations by 2026, but Here’s the Problem

The long wait for clear cryptocurrency regulations in the U.S. may soon be over.

TD Cowen forecasts that the government could finalize its crypto regulations by 2026, bringing much-needed certainty to investors and businesses. However, the road to this milestone is far from smooth. With political divides deepening and unexpected distractions – like the rise of the TRUMP memecoin – on the horizon, the path to clarity could face more twists and turns than anticipated.

Read on to explore how these developments might shape the market.

Why Crypto Regulations Are Crucial?

A note from TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group, led by Jaret Seiberg, highlighted the importance of bipartisan support in advancing the crypto market structure bill. 

The lack of clear regulations has slowed the growth of the crypto market in the U.S. Without legal certainty, investors are hesitant to commit, and businesses face operational challenges. To unlock the sector’s potential, resolving these regulatory gray areas is essential. However, political divides could delay these vital changes.

Impact of the TRUMP Memecoin

One unexpected factor complicating crypto legislation is the launch of the TRUMP memecoin. Introduced just before President Donald Trump Donald Trump Donald Trump is an American former president politician, businessman, and media personality, who served as the 45th president of the U.S. between 2017 to 2021. Trump earned a Bachelor of science in economics from the University of Pennsylvania in 1968. Trump won the 2016 presidential election as the Republican Party nominee against Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton while losing the popular vote. As president, Trump ordered a travel ban on citizens from several Muslim-majority countries, diverted military funding toward building a wall on the U.S.–Mexico border, and implemented a family separation policy. Trump has remained a prominent figure in the Republican Party and is considered a likely candidate for the 2024 presidential election President ’s inauguration, the coin saw an initial market cap of over $14 billion but has since lost nearly half its value. It now trades around $42, with a market cap of $8 billion.

TD Cowen analysts warn that the TRUMP memecoin could worsen partisan tensions in Washington, further delaying progress on crypto regulations.

Democrats are expected to investigate whether foreign entities have used the coin to influence U.S. politics, while Republicans are likely to defend Trump, making it harder to build the bipartisan cooperation needed to move forward.

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Why the Memecoin Was a Bad Idea

The TRUMP token has drawn criticism from both the crypto community and policymakers, with many arguing that it distracts from the industry’s broader goals and could harm its reputation.

Still, Jaret Seiberg’s team at TD Cowen stresses that bipartisan cooperation remains essential for passing crypto legislation.

The path to comprehensive crypto regulations is far from straightforward, but the industry’s determination for clarity remains strong. Let’s see how it all plays out.