Hoolie Tejwani, Head of Coinbase Ventures, said in a recent Milk Road interview that the classic 4-year crypto cycle might not work anymore. Coinbase Ventures has made over 600 investments and is one of the most active crypto investors in the industry.
So what changed? Bitcoin ETFs brought in a new type of holder. People are now putting Bitcoin in their 401k. These aren’t traders looking to flip in 18 months, but are holding for decades.
On top of that, liquidity is spread thin. There are now over 10,000 assets launching constantly. Prediction markets and perpetual trading are pulling attention away from spot markets.
“I really question whether there is such thing as a four-year crypto cycle anymore,” Tejwani said.
If cycles are dead, what replaces them? Tejwani called it a “long-term token picker market.” That means the focus shifts to projects with real revenue, actual users, and clear value capture.
He also said that down markets like this one are where the serious builders show up.
“We’re looking for missionaries, not mercenaries. We’re looking for folks who are signed up for like a 5-10 year vision,” he added.
The firm is active in five areas: stablecoin infrastructure (which Tejwani described as having 100x potential), perpetuals and real-world asset tokenization, DeFi, privacy, and crypto x AI.
On AI, he drew a clear line. Agent tokens that trade for you are likely “AI slop.” The real opportunity is in infrastructure: payment rails for machine-to-machine transactions, identity systems for agents, and decentralized AI training.
Coinbase acquired Echo as part of a plan to open up early-stage investing to everyday users. Tejwani called current accredited investor rules “incredibly archaic.”
With the Genius Act passed and the Clarity Act still pending, more products could be on the way soon.
New projects may struggle to gain attention without real traction, even in rising markets. Teams will need sustainable business models earlier, not just hype-driven token launches.
Investors may need to evaluate crypto more like equities, focusing on cash flow, users, and long-term relevance. Short-term momentum strategies could become less reliable.
Market behavior across the next Bitcoin halving and macro tightening cycles will be telling. Consistent capital flows and muted boom-bust patterns would support this shift.
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