CLARITY Act Odds Fall as Trump Crypto Ethics Fight Threatens Senate Vote

The future of the CLARITY Act is facing fresh uncertainty as a political dispute over President Donald Trump’s crypto earnings threatens to complicate the bill’s passage through the U.S. Senate.

Prediction markets have turned increasingly cautious. Polymarket currently puts the odds of the bill passing this year at around 40%, while other estimates have fallen even lower. A crucial Senate vote could come as early as this week, with Senate Majority Leader John Thune saying lawmakers will vote on the legislation before August 10.

Democrats Push for Crypto Ethics Rules

Democratic opposition has intensified, with Senators Chris Murphy, Jeff Merkley and Chris Van Hollen speaking out against the bill. Senator Elizabeth Warren has made the ethics issue a central part of the debate, calling on Trump to voluntarily disclose his crypto earnings for 2026.

Trump’s financial disclosures reportedly showed more than $1 billion in crypto-related income, prompting Democrats to demand provisions that would prevent elected officials from promoting or issuing cryptocurrencies.

The issue has become a major obstacle to bipartisan support. Summer Mersinger, CEO of the Blockchain Association and a former CFTC commissioner, described ethics as “the big elephant in the room,” while urging lawmakers not to allow the dispute to derail broader crypto market legislation.

Bulls Calls for Compromise

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said the CLARITY Act remains essential for America’s digital asset industry but urged both parties to compromise on the ethics clause. He argued that voters do not want politicians to gain financial advantages unavailable to ordinary citizens.

Crypto Markets Watch for a Breakthrough

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe said the sharp decline in approval odds could create an asymmetric opportunity if the bill ultimately passes. 

Van de Poppe believes markets may already be signaling optimism around a possible Senate approval. With major crypto industry players pushing for regulatory clarity, the United States faces pressure to avoid falling behind other jurisdictions.

On the price front, van de Poppe says Bitcoin looks poised for a bullish breakout next week, citing the reclaim of the 21-day and 50-day moving averages. He believes a decisive move above $65,000 would confirm the breakout, with $68,000, $73,000, and $80,000 as his near-term price targets. 

Analyst Daan Crypto Trades noted that Bitcoin has closed another weekly candle above the 200-week moving average, but said a strong push above the 200-week EMA is still needed to confirm a broader trend reversal. Until then, he expects BTC to remain range-bound around $60,000.