Will the ‘Santa Claus Rally’ Save Bitcoin This Year? Here’s What to Expect

Bitcoin has had a rough few weeks. After hitting a record high of $108,000, its price has now dropped to $92,442, down 14.5%, leaving many wondering if the long-awaited “Santa Claus rally” will make its appearance this year. Although Bitcoin has managed a slight recovery to $94,000, it’s still down more than 11% in the past week.

So, with the holiday season approaching, is a rally on the horizon, or are we seeing the start of a bigger downturn? As we enter the final stretch of 2024, all eyes are on Bitcoin—could the end of the year hold a surprise.

Prepping for the Santa Claus Rally

Historically, crypto markets have done well during the holiday season, especially in years before market peaks. For example, 2016 and 2020 saw strong rallies just before crypto prices hit their all-time highs. A study by CoinGecko found that from 2014 to 2023, crypto markets rallied post-Christmas 8 out of 10 years. On average, market caps rose between 0.7% and 11.8% from December 27 to January 2. This has led many to expect a Santa Claus rally this year.

But not every year plays out like that. In 2021, for example, Bitcoin had already dropped by 26% by ChrisHowever, not every year follows this trend. In 2021, for instance, Bitcoin had already dropped by 26% by Christmas Day and continued to decline throughout 2022.

Still, many expect 2025 to be a big year for Bitcoin, following the usual four-year market cycle. Despite the dips, the cyclical nature of crypto markets keeps hope alive.

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Factors to Watch

While Bitcoin’s recent price drop doesn’t align with the usual Santa Claus rally, a few upcoming events could stir things up. Around December 27, about $18 billion in Bitcoin and Ether options contracts will expire, which could lead to significant volatility and influence Bitcoin’s price. Additionally, Bitcoin’s social sentiment hit its lowest point of the year in late December, which could signal that a recovery is coming.

Bitcoin’s performance around Christmas has been unpredictable. Some years, it surged; other years, it fell. But if we look at December as a whole, Bitcoin has generally seen a decent return. In fact, betting on the entire month of December has, on average, been more profitable than focusing just on the Santa Claus rally.

High Hopes for December

As 2024 comes to a close, all eyes will be on Bitcoin’s next move. Will it rebound, or will it continue to struggle? There’s still hope that Bitcoin might surprise us in the final days of December, especially with the expiration of options contracts and a shift in market sentiment.

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