Gold has jumped more than 70% this year and is now trading near a new record high of $4,406. The rally is being driven by expected interest rate cuts and rising global tensions. At the same time, Bitcoin has been falling compared to gold. Bitcoin is now trading below $87,000, almost 29% down from its recent peak.
This growing gap has left many traders wondering whether Bitcoin can recover and eventually move ahead of gold again.
For centuries, gold has been the top choice to store value. Recently, many countries and large institutions have rushed to buy gold as global tensions rise, inflation fears grow, and investors expect interest rate cuts.
Gold is widely seen as a safe place to park money during uncertain times. Because of this strong demand, gold prices have surged more than 70% this year, reaching new record levels above $4,400 per ounce.
In contrast, Bitcoin has faced more selling pressure, with its value down roughly 29% from its peak and trading range-bound for weeks.
Gold supply increases slowly each year. When gold prices rise, miners are encouraged to dig deeper, use more machines, and extract more gold. This extra supply slowly enters the market and helps cool prices over time.
Bitcoin works in a completely different way.
Bitcoin has a fixed supply of only 21 million coins. No matter how high the price goes, no new Bitcoin can be created beyond this limit. Every four years, Bitcoin goes through a halving event that cuts the number of new coins entering the market in half. This makes Bitcoin harder to obtain as time passes.
Because of this design, rising demand does not increase Bitcoin’s supply.
Meanwhile, a crypto researcher, David, offers a mathematical calculator using very conservative assumptions:
Under these slow estimates, Bitcoin could match gold’s total value in about 18 years. That would place Bitcoin near a $30 trillion market cap, or roughly $1.5 million per coin.
This is not hype. It is basic math based on supply rules.
The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio chart shows how Bitcoin performs compared to gold over time. Right now, this ratio is moving inside a falling wedge pattern, which is often seen before a trend reversal.
Even more important, momentum indicators like RSI and MACD are showing bullish divergence. This means selling pressure is slowing, even though prices remain low. In simple terms, Bitcoin is losing strength less quickly against gold, which often happens before a rebound.
This setup suggests Bitcoin may be forming a base rather than collapsing further.
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