Bitcoin’s move toward $81,000 is giving traders hope that the market may be recovering. But CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin cycle indicators show that BTC has not yet reached the conditions seen near major market bottoms. Meanwhile, derivatives data points to continued leveraged trading.
Could this rebound be a trap before another drop?
According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s Cycle Extremes Index has fallen to 15.8% on its 30-day moving average, placing the market in the “Watch / Mild Pressure” zone. BTC is also trading roughly 46% below its previous all-time high, showing that the broader correction remains significant.
The Cycle Extreme Oscillator tells a similar story. Its 30-day moving average remains near the lower end of its historical range and below the 1.0 level that has previously accompanied stronger cycle extremes.
That means the current market is cooling rather than showing the type of extreme conditions that have historically appeared around major turning points.
The derivatives market also shows that traders remain cautious. CoinGlass data shows Bitcoin open interest at around $53.19 billion, indicating that a large amount of leveraged positions remains in the market.
However, the funding rate is positive at 0.011%, meaning long traders were paying funding fees to short traders. This shows that bullish positions remain active, even as Bitcoin struggles to hold its recovery.
The long/short ratio stood at around 0.97, slightly below 1. This indicates that short positions slightly outnumber long positions, showing that traders remain uncertain about a sustained price recovery.
Liquidation data also shows continued volatility. Over the past four hours, Bitcoin recorded about $5.93 million in short liquidations and $3.65 million in long liquidations.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $80,107 after briefly reaching $81,235. Its rejection near that level makes $81,000 an important resistance area in the short term.
A sustained move above $82,700 could weaken the bearish outlook and open the way toward $90,000.
However, if Bitcoin fails to break above $81,000, further downside remains possible, with the price potentially falling toward $76,000–$77,000.
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