Bitcoin Supply Shock Debate Grows as IFP Turns Bullish

Bitcoin is seeing two bullish signals at once. Bitcoin supply that hasn’t moved for more than six months has reached 81%, while the Inter-exchange Flow Pulse indicator has flipped back to a bullish trend.

Bitcoin Supply Keeps More Coins Off The Market

The 81% figure from an x post suggests a large share of BTC supply hasn’t moved in at least six months. That level of dormant supply has fueled talk of a potential supply shock as available coins become increasingly locked up.

Still, the data shows inactivity, not a guaranteed price outcome. The next move depends on whether demand returns strongly enough to absorb available supply.

IFP Golden Cross Brings Bulls Back

The Bitcoin Inter-exchange Flow Pulse indicator has also produced a bullish signal after forming a golden cross with its 90-day moving average.

BTC inflows into derivatives exchanges are currently above the 90-day average, pointing to increasing capital flows into those venues. The indicator had shifted bearish on September 12 and stayed there for some time before flipping bullish again, per CryptoQuant analyst CW8900.

Interestingly, Bitcoin continued trending upward during that bearish period despite derivatives inflows remaining below the 90-day average.

Bitcoin Could See Stronger Momentum Ahead

Now those inflows are rising again, creating a setup for potentially stronger upward movement than the current trend.

Historically, Bitcoin has recorded significant rises when the IFP produces bullish signals. That historical relationship doesn’t guarantee another rally, but the latest flip puts the indicator back on the bullish side.

For Bitcoin, the combination of 81% of supply sitting untouched for six months or longer and a renewed bullish IFP signal gives traders two closely watched signals as the market looks for its next major move.