Bitcoin’s recent price swings have caught the market’s attention as it enters a historically pivotal period.
With Bitcoin dipping to lower levels, traders are watching closely to see if it will align with the typical Uptober trend or face further weakness.
After surprising the market with highs over $124,000, Bitcoin has cooled off, slipping over 4% this past month. August is usually a slow month for trading, and Bitcoin has often seen double-digit drops during this time.
On average, Bitcoin loses 7.5% in August, with a median return of -1.6%, and 9 of the last 13 Augusts ending in the red. Even during strong bull runs like 2017 and 2021, it has struggled, and 2025 is following the same trend.
Therefore, the dip is not unexpected; it’s just part of the cycle. It is currently trading at $113,192, down 0.2% in the last 24 hours. However, while August has been a tricky month, it often sets the stage for explosive Q4 rallies.
All eyes are now on September. Analyst Kaleo notes that September has often marked a local bottom for Bitcoin, hitting this in four of the past five years. As he puts it, “Sendtember is a springboard for Uptober,” setting the stage for potential gains next month.
Expert Benjamin Cowen also predicts that Bitcoin may test its bull market support zone in September.
He has highlighted a pattern that often appears in the years after a halving: Bitcoin tends to rise in July–August, dip in September, climb toward a Q4 market top, and then enter a bear market.
Trader Doctor Profit also notes that Bitcoin has been moving within a tight range and expects it to stay sideways until September. He has also warned recently that the current dip is mild compared to what’s coming in September, and expects Bitcoin to drop below $100K before bouncing to a new all-time high.
Analyst Rekt Capital notes that in previous cycles, Bitcoin’s pullbacks were short and shallow. These quick retraces helped set up strong uptrends afterward. If Bitcoin pulls back now, a similar shallow retrace could signal the start of the next major price surge.
Traders are also keeping a close eye on the Fed’s September meeting, as any signals on interest rates, inflation, or potential rate cuts could heavily influence Bitcoin’s short-term price action.
Bitcoin fell 4% as August is historically weak, averaging a 7.5% monthly decline.
Analysts note September often forms a local bottom, setting up Uptober rallies.
Shallow retraces and Fed policy signals may trigger Bitcoin’s next major rally.
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