Bitcoin Recovery Timeline: When BTC Price May Start Rising Again

Bitcoin price continued to face heavy selling pressure this week, trading near the $71,000 level and showing signs of further downside as broader market uncertainty builds. Market observers warn that a break below the $70,000 psychological support could open the door to a deeper correction into the $60,000 range or lower.

Bitcoin Bear Market Duration Shows a Clear Downtrend

Past Bitcoin bear markets show a clear trend of becoming shorter with each cycle. The first major downturn lasted about 410 days. The second cycle lasted around 365 days. The most recent completed bear market lasted roughly 330 days. This shows that Bitcoin’s price declines have taken less time over the years.

Despite this pattern, some analysts still use an average duration of about 370 days to estimate market bottoms. This approach ignores the steady shortening of market cycles. 

When historical data is analyzed using trend-based models, the current bear market is projected to last closer to 288 days. Measured from Bitcoin’s all-time high on October 6, this points to a possible market bottom around July 21, 2026.

On-Chain Data Highlights $60,000 as a Potential Bitcoin Bottom Zone

More signs of a possible Bitcoin price bottom come from a long-used market indicator that compares how much Bitcoin is currently in profit versus how much is in loss. 

In previous market declines, Bitcoin has often reached its lowest point when these two amounts moved close to each other.

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 Right now, about 11 million Bitcoins are still in profit, while roughly 9 million are sitting at a loss. If these figures continue to narrow at current price levels, it would point to a Bitcoin price near $60,000, which closely matches where past market bottoms have formed.

Bitcoin Price Bottom Timeline

Based on the historical view, Bitcoin’s price could hit a low as early as May 14, well ahead of the July estimate suggested by longer-term trend models. Even though the timelines differ, both point toward the same price area, making $60,000 an important level to watch. 

While market conditions can change quickly and no single method can predict prices with certainty, the way past trends, price behavior, and supply data line up this cycle suggests the downturn may be shorter than in previous years. 

The economic conditions and unexpected events could still affect the outcome, but the repeating patterns seen across multiple Bitcoin cycles offer useful context for those watching Bitcoin’s long-term price direction.

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