Bitcoin is entering Q4 of 2025, which often carries a reputation for sparking strong rallies. But after falling over 10% from its all-time high of $124,000, 10x Research analysts warn that the usual bullish drivers are weak this year.
Adding to worries, 10x Research predicts Bitcoin could move $20,000 up or down, highlighting the market’s uncertainty.
October has historically been Bitcoin’s strongest month, often setting the tone for a bullish Q4. Historically, 10 out of 12 times, it has delivered gains, with an average price jump of 21%.
But as 10x Research points out, when everyone is leaning in the same direction, the market often finds a way to do the opposite. This year, the usual drivers behind October rallies are weaker, leaving traders more exposed to potential swings.
According to the 10x research analysis, Bitcoin is approaching critical levels where technical pressure is rising. However, the price may break out, but the direction is uncertain.
Although BTC has fallen 3% this week, struggling to pass the $115K resistance. Therefore, analysts say early Q4 could see a swing of up to $20,000 in either direction.
Beyond charts and trading desks, on-chain data is also flashing warning signs. 10x Research points out that options markets show traders betting against a strong breakout, which could add more volatility if the market surprises them.
According to CryptoQuant, whales have sold 147,000 BTC in just a month, accelerating downward pressure.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $113,060, showing only slight movement in the past 24 hours. Analysts are watching $109,898 as a crucial support level, holding above it could keep the bull market alive, while dropping toward $105K may trigger larger declines.
On the upside, a breakout above $115K could pave the way for Bitcoin to test the $120K level,
While October has a historical reputation for strong Bitcoin rallies, analysts from 10x Research are cautious. They note that the usual bullish drivers are weaker this year, creating a more uncertain market environment.
“Uptober” is a term used by the crypto community to describe Bitcoin’s historical tendency to rally in October. Bitcoin has recorded an average gain of 21% in October over the years, making it a key month for bulls.
Analysts from 10x Research warn that Bitcoin could swing by up to $20,000 in either direction in early Q4. A crucial support level to watch is $109,898, as a drop below this could lead to further declines.
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