Bitcoin fell 40% while global liquidity went up. Gold rallied. M2 money supply climbed. BTC broke down below $100,000. That wasn’t supposed to happen.
Macro analyst Raoul Pal says the bull market isn’t dead, just delayed. According to a breakdown by analyst Nathan Sloan, Pal argues crypto’s 4-year cycle has stretched into a 5-year cycle, pushing the real peak to 2026.
Because of this, there won’t be a crypto winter this year, but a delayed mega-boom instead.
Bitcoin and global M2 have moved together for years. When liquidity rises, BTC rises. The 2020-2021 bull run followed this pattern closely.
This cycle broke that trend. M2 went up. Bitcoin went sideways, then down. Investors expecting $200,000 watched BTC slide instead.
“Everyone was expecting super super highs. We got the absolute opposite,” Sloan noted.
US government debt keeps growing. Interest payments are getting harder to manage. The government needs lower rates to refinance.
But Jerome Powell kept rates high to fight inflation. That delayed the cheap money that usually drives crypto higher.
Bitcoin follows the business cycle. When that cycle stretches, so does crypto’s timeline. The 2025 peak many expected may now arrive in 2026.
Short-term pain and long-term gains can happen together.
In 2019, the Fed ended tightening and started easing. Bitcoin still dropped for six more months before turning around. Liquidity takes time to hit markets.
If that pattern repeats, another 50% drop is possible before the bottom. But once liquidity flows through, the rally could be sharp.
Altcoin season is still expected. It just follows Bitcoin’s lead, so it waits too.
The next few months matter. A new Fed chair is expected to cut rates. That shift could restart the liquidity engine.
Sloan says Pal’s thesis should get confirmed or rejected by the end of Q1. If the theory holds, the crypto rally was never canceled, just pushed back.
Analysts suggest Bitcoin could peak in 2026, potentially above $200,000, if liquidity flows and macro conditions align with the delayed bull market cycle.
Major risks include global recessions, tighter crypto regulations, declining liquidity, or a sustained breakdown below key support levels.
Bitcoin price forecasts for 2030 range from $380K to $900K, driven by scarcity, long-term adoption, and expanding institutional participation.
Bitcoin’s fixed supply makes it attractive as an inflation hedge, especially during currency debasement and long-term economic uncertainty.
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