Bitcoin Price Set for Q4 Rally: Key Metrics to Watch This Summer

In a recent X post, Benjamin Cowen chimed into Bitcoin dominance, explaining its significance in the crypto market. 

For now, the world’s most popular cryptocurrency is at a crossroads. In the coming weeks, a crucial decision awaits: will Bitcoin break free from its current resistance and climb above the Bull Market Support Band (BMSB), or will it remain tethered below?

Analyst Benjamin Cowen sheds light on a familiar pattern emerging in the summer of 2024. This is in reference to previous examples.

Historical Parallels: 2013 vs. 2024

Drawing a parallel between Bitcoin’s performance in 2013 and 2024, Cowen noted that BTC found a local low on July 5th in both years. He suggests that if Bitcoin follows a similar pattern to 2013, it could experience a “left-translated peak.” In this scenario, BTC would quickly reclaim the BMSB and hold it as support over the next 1-2 months, leading to a rally in Q4.

Historically, Bitcoin tends to peak in Q4 of the post-halving year, which for the current cycle would be 2025. However, Bitcoin might take longer to reclaim its BMSB this time, suggesting a slower but steady climb toward its peak.

Bitcoin Dominance Trends

Cowen predicts a strong rally in Bitcoin dominance in Q4, potentially peaking around 60%. He argues that Bitcoin, being lower risk than other cryptocurrencies, will likely provide better returns than most altcoins until the Federal Reserve pivots. This perspective highlights Bitcoin’s role as a safer and more reliable investment in the current market environment.

Technical Analysis

Cowen also emphasizes the importance of Bitcoin’s 2-week Relative Strength Index (RSI). This level will help determine whether Bitcoin follows the patterns of 2013 and 2016, where it found support around these levels, or 2019, where it fell through and experienced an intermediate downtrend within a larger uptrend. This analysis provides a technical framework for understanding Bitcoin’s potential paths.

Responding to Cowen, Zia ul Haque agrees with the Q4 rally prediction but expresses skepticism about Bitcoin’s dominance exceeding 58%. He points out that as each cycle progresses, more money gets locked into altcoins, with many investors holding onto them despite market fluctuations. According to Haque, this dynamic could soon lead to a bottoming out of altcoins.

The Road Ahead: Summer and Beyond

In summary, Cowen believes Bitcoin’s future in Q4 2024 hinges on its ability to rise above the Bull Market Support Band (BMSB). If it follows patterns from 2013, 2016, and 2023, Bitcoin might see a strong recovery and rally. However, if it mirrors the 2019 trend, it could continue to struggle.

As we move through the summer, the focus will be on Bitcoin’s ability to overcome its current resistance and the factors influencing its path in the coming months.

Read Also: Here’s Why Surpassing $65,000 May be an Uphill Battle for the Bitcoin (BTC) Price Rally

Will Bitcoin history repeat itself, or are we in for a surprise in Q4? We’ll have to wait and see.