Bitcoin is ending the year under pressure after a weak final quarter, keeping markets split on what comes next. Short-term BTC price action points to continued volatility, but the broader trend is still intact, just not ready to play out yet. For now, Bitcoin’s direction will remain uneven and heavily driven by liquidity and macro forces.
Some analysts expect a short-term rebound. Market analyst Mr. Wall Street says downside liquidity is currently too thin to support a deep sell-off. Instead, he expects a relief move that could lift Bitcoin into the $98,000–$104,000 range. This zone aligns with major liquidity pockets and unresolved fair value gaps.
That said, he warns this move is likely a bull trap, not the start of a fresh uptrend. The bounce could pull in late buyers before another leg lower begins.
Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, believes 2026 will be defined by uncertainty. Options data shows nearly equal odds of Bitcoin trading near $50,000 or rallying toward $250,000 by year-end. The spread reflects confusion, not confidence.
Thorn points to macro pressure, shifting monetary policy, and political risk as key forces shaping market behavior.
Despite near-term risks, Thorn remains bullish over the longer horizon. He expects Bitcoin to move toward $250,000 by late 2027, driven by lower long-term volatility and deeper institutional adoption. In his view, Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a macro asset rather than a speculative trade.
Backing this view, analyst Sykodelic argues Bitcoin is still undervalued relative to global liquidity and gold. Based on historical relationships, he places a fair value near $153,000, with room to overshoot toward $200,000+ as the price reverts to long-term averages.
Most analysts agree that 2026 could be difficult. Lark Davis believes Bitcoin has already topped this cycle, with $126,000 marking both the price and timing peak. Fidelity’s cycle analysis also points to 2026 as a down year, with strong support expected between $65,000 and $75,000.
Mr. Wall Street shares a similar outlook but sees risk extending slightly lower. He expects Bitcoin to test the $64,000–$70,000 range by late Q1 or early Q2 of 2026. He adds that this zone may not mark the final bottom, but rather the first major reset.
Bitcoin may see a short-term bounce toward $98,000–$104,000, but analysts warn this relief rally could be temporary, not a confirmed trend reversal.
Bitcoin’s price is mainly driven by global liquidity, interest rate policy, and macroeconomic uncertainty, rather than purely crypto-specific news.
Several analysts argue Bitcoin remains undervalued versus global liquidity and gold, suggesting higher long-term upside despite near-term volatility.
From a trader’s perspective, 2026 is likely a consolidation year, with Bitcoin ranging between $60,000 and $120,000 unless macro liquidity improves decisively.
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