The largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, has entered a month that has often been weak for the crypto market. While prediction market Kalshi shows traders expect Bitcoin to have a better chance of crossing $67,500 in August.
Crypto analyst Joao Wedson believes the market has not reached its bottom yet, suggesting more downside could still be ahead.
Bitcoin is currently trading near $64,953, leaving the $65,500 level as an important hurdle. More importantly, BTC is trading below the short-term holder realized price of about $67,523.
This creates a key problem for the recovery. Investors who bought Bitcoin recently may look to sell when the price returns to their average cost. That could create fresh selling pressure around the same level Kalshi traders are watching as their main August target.
The gap between Bitcoin and the short-term holder cost basis has also narrowed to about $2,571, the smallest gap since July 21. If BTC reaches this zone, the market could face a major test between buyers looking for a breakout and holders looking to exit near breakeven.
Kalshi traders are showing some hope for a Bitcoin recovery in August. The market gives Bitcoin a 54% chance of moving above $67,500 by the end of the month. However, the chances become lower as the price target rises.
The odds of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 are 31%, while the chance of moving above $72,500 is only 13%. This shows that traders expect Bitcoin could recover, but they are not expecting a big price jump yet.
The outlook is also important as August has usually been a weak month for Bitcoin. Still, Bitcoin ETFs are giving buyers some hope. ETFs recorded their second best weekly inflow of the year, with around 11,792 BTC worth about $754 million flowing into ETF wallets this week.
As of now, Bitcoin is still trading above several key on chain support levels, showing that the market remains stable for now.
However, CryptoQuant analyst Joao Wedson says Bitcoin has not yet reached the deep undervalued levels that usually appear near a major market bottom.
This suggests the current move looks more like a normal correction than a confirmed bottom.
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