The Bitcoin price crashed to a new two-month low, near $83,000, its weakest level since November.
From its recent rebound high near $98,000, Bitcoin has now fallen by almost $14,700, a decline of about 15% in just over two weeks. The steady selling pressure suggests this move may be more than a short-term dip. Even as the US dollar weakens, Bitcoin has failed to attract buyers looking for safety.
The decline has intensified concerns that the broader crypto market has entered a bear market, with multiple technical and liquidity indicators now aligning to the downside.
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen believes the answer may be yes. According to Cowen, Bitcoin’s decline fits a familiar pattern seen in previous market cycles. He says Bitcoin often starts falling at this stage, regardless of news or sentiment.
Cowen argues that Bitcoin likely peaked in October 2025, and the market has been trending lower since then.
Historically, Bitcoin has often reached its peak in the fourth quarter of major cycle years, a pattern seen in 2013, 2017, 2021, and again in 2025. In each of these cycles, the peak was followed by a prolonged downturn.
According to Cowen, the current market is following the same timeline, despite widespread expectations that this cycle would play out differently.
Cowen also compares the current market to 2019, a period when Bitcoin declined slowly without widespread hype or panic. During that phase, altcoins failed to perform, prices moved lower in a steady manner, and Bitcoin weakened before broader money conditions began to improve.
He believes the market today is showing similar signs, with Bitcoin continuing to fall ahead of any clear improvement in overall liquidity.
In previous cycles, Bitcoin downturns have typically lasted around one year. The 2018 bear market stretched for roughly 12 months, and the 2022 downturn followed a similar timeline. If the current decline started in October 2025, Benjamin Cowen expects the weakness to persist until late 2026.
He also highlights that past drawdowns in Bitcoin-linked stocks took close to two years to reach a bottom after peaking, suggesting the current cycle could follow a similarly extended path.
Based on historical market cycles, Bitcoin is expected to form a bottom sometime between mid-2026 and late 2026. If the current downtrend continues, the price could drop toward $50,000, a level many see as a major long-term support zone.
In an extended bear market scenario, where selling pressure increases and key support levels fail to hold, BTC Price could slide further toward $30,000, a range that has marked deep bear market lows in previous cycles.
A drop toward these levels would match previous bear markets, where Bitcoin fell sharply before finding long-term support.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $83,000, a level many traders see as important in the short term. The first level to watch is $80,000, which holds psychological importance and has attracted buyers in the past. Below that, the $74,000–$75,000 range stands out as an earlier support zone where Bitcoin previously found stability.
On the downside, a deeper risk sits near $71,000, which marks the midpoint of the last major rally. In earlier cycles, drops below this level have often led to faster and sharper losses.
For now, Bitcoin remains within a strong support zone between $80,000 and $84,000. This area has acted as a buying zone before, and the market is testing it for the third time, increasing the chances of a short-term bounce. While many had expected Bitcoin to dip closer to $80,000 before stabilizing, current price action suggests selling pressure is easing slightly above that level.
Bitcoin is down due to steady selling pressure, weaker liquidity, risk-off sentiment, and technical breakdowns near key support levels.
Bitcoin shows strong bear market signals, including a 15% drop, weakening demand, and historical patterns that often mark the start of prolonged downturns.
Based on past cycles, Bitcoin bear markets often last about a year, suggesting weakness could continue until late 2026.
If the downtrend continues, Bitcoin could revisit $50,000 or even $30,000, levels that previously marked long-term bear market bottoms.
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