Bitcoin Price ‘Breakout’ Was Fake, and This $62,500 Level is Back in Focus

Bitcoin traders got caught on both sides of the same trap this week, according to one chart analyst tracking the recent price swing, and the fallout is exposing exactly which level really matters right now. Bitcoin had been consolidating inside a triangle pattern for days. When price finally broke toward the upside, traders piled into long positions expecting a clean continuation higher.

It didn’t hold. Bitcoin’s triangle breakout was actually a fakeout that liquidated many traders, according to the analyst, who says he avoided the trade entirely because he doesn’t trust breakout setups. His rule instead: enter only at support, ideally right after a liquidity grab, not on a breakout chase.

One Level That Actually Matters

Using a volume profile across Bitcoin’s recent price action, the analyst identified a single price zone that keeps reappearing as the point of control, the area with the heaviest trading volume on the entire chart.

The single biggest support on Bitcoin’s entire chart sits near $62,500, he says. That level lines up with three separate technical tools: the volume profile’s point of control, an anchored VWAP drawn from a recent swing low, and a rising trend line connecting Bitcoin’s recent higher lows.

Reading the Current Pullback as a Wave Count

The analyst frames Bitcoin’s broader move as an ABC correction, with the current leg representing what he calls the “C wave,” itself expected to unfold in five smaller waves. He believes wave one of that structure just completed, and Bitcoin is now working through wave two, the current pullback.

Fibonacci retracement levels give him two targets for where that pullback could end: a shallower target near $63,600, and a deeper one closer to $62,500, which aligns with the volume-based support already identified. A confirmed break below $61,700 would invalidate the current bullish wave count, he said, marking the line where his entire bullish thesis falls apart.

Resistance Levels Standing in the Way

Above current prices, the analyst is watching resistance near $65,700, a zone he says carries extra weight because two separate liquidity pools stack at that same level, alongside the top of a descending channel.

If Bitcoin can push through that resistance while forming a third wave higher, he expects the move to continue toward $68,000, an area that lines up with both an anchored VWAP resistance zone on the daily chart and a Fibonacci extension target. The analyst’s next major upside target for Bitcoin sits near $68,000 to $69,000.

Where This Leaves Traders

The analyst says he remains long on both Bitcoin and Ethereum, along with an existing long position on Hyperliquid, and continues to view pullbacks toward support as buying opportunities rather than reasons to turn bearish, as long as Bitcoin holds above its most recent low.