Today is the last day of March. Bitcoin is currently trading at $66,761, and the number that matters most right now is not the price, but the monthly close.
According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin has already posted 5 straight months of losses. October through February read like a slow bleed: -3.69%, -17.67%, -2.97%, -10.17%, -14.94%. March is currently sitting at +0.88%. One red close today and Bitcoin confirms 6 consecutive months of losses.
While the monthly close grabs headlines, the more significant signal is happening on-chain.
Data shows Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder SOPR has dropped below 1.0, which means holders who have held for over 155 days are now selling at a loss. The indicator dropping below 1.0 is what analysts call a ‘surrender phase.’
CryptoQuant analyst DanCoinInvestor put it: “While it may be early to identify the current market as the bottom, a phase in which losses become widespread would likely represent the final stage of fear and the beginning of opportunity.”
The SOPR chart tells a striking historical story. Every previous time this indicator dropped below 1.0 – 2015, 2019, 2022 – a major rally followed. The current reading matches those prior capitulation zones almost exactly.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe offered a direct read on the setup.
“It’s probably better to ask ‘when’ instead of ‘if’ we’re going to see the price of Bitcoin fall,” he wrote.
Van de Poppe’s chart points to a liquidity sweep in early April, with a potential recovery zone between $53,000 and $60,000 before a reversal higher.
Historically, April has been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months. The CoinGlass monthly returns table shows an average April return of +13.06% and a median of +7.27% – though 2026 has already broken several historical patterns this year
Bitcoin is down 1.08% over the past 24 hours and 6.29% over the past 7 days. The bear trend is intact. But the same on-chain signals that appeared at every major bottom in Bitcoin’s history are now active.
The monthly close in the next few hours will set the tone for April. Traders are watching.
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