Bitcoin Is in the “Upside Down”: Benjamin Cowen Warns of Q4 Drop If Loses $83K

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has called Bitcoin’s current market structure “The Upside Down,” borrowing the term from Stranger Things. Despite rising Treasury yields, higher energy prices and a stronger dollar, Bitcoin has jumped to an eight-month high near $87,000.

Cowen now says the weekly close and $83,000 level could determine whether the breakout continues or Bitcoin faces another Q4 pullback.

Cowen Calls Bitcoin “The Upside Down”

In a video titled “Bitcoin: The Upside Down,” Cowen admitted that his long standing bearish cycle thesis is no longer working as expected. Bitcoin has instead jumped above $86,000 despite several macro signals that he expected to push prices lower.

Every single link in his macroeconomic chain played out flawlessly. U.S. Treasury Yields spiked skyrocketing past the 5% threshold to hit 5.15%, the Fed hiked rates by 25bps for the first time in three years, and the DXY double-bottomed to push vertically higher. 

Given these rising macro pressures, Cowen had expected Bitcoin to follow its historical 2014, 2018, and 2022 patterns to collapse into a deep October cycle low near $44,000.

But Bitcoin defied the trend, surging 51% from $57,800 in the last three months to break above $to $87K.

Thus, Cowen says that 

“When this has happened historically, we’ve been back in business… so that’s why it just feels like the upside down to me. “

Bitcoin’s Golden Cross Makes $83K a Key Level

For now, Cowen is closely watching Bitcoin’s Golden Cross. It forms when Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average moves above its 200-day moving average. It is generally seen as a sign of a short-term price rally.

However, history shows that Bitcoin does not always rally immediately after a Golden Cross. In 2019, Bitcoin first faced a correction before recovering and reaching a higher high. A similar pattern appeared in 2023, when Bitcoin fell around 12% before recovering and moving higher.

This makes the 50-week moving average particularly important. Cowen says Bitcoin needs to stay above this level and continue posting higher weekly closes. If that holds, the $83K level becomes an important level. 

He says that if Bitcoin stays above $83K, the current structure could gain further confirmation. 

But a weekly close below $83K could set up another Q4 decline,

Bitcoin’s Q4 Record Offers Mixed Signals

Looking only at the Q4 data, Bitcoin has often done well, but the results are mixed.

Since 2013, eight of 13 Q4 periods were positive, while five were negative. The chart cannot tell us what will happen in Q4 2026. It only shows that Bitcoin can have a strong final quarter, but losses are also common.

Bitcoin is entering Q4 after a 42.1% gain in Q3, so past data shows a wide range of possible outcomes.