Bitcoin struggles below $58K amid German BTC sales and market pressures. Learn why it isn't rising & how long it can take.
Bitcoin’s price has been stagnant below $58,000 for what feels like an eternity. Despite being in a bull market, Bitcoin isn’t climbing, and both market and non-market factors are contributing to this stagnation.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3% in June. Analysts see this as a bullish signal for Bitcoin, but the price isn’t rising. If the US central bank cuts interest rates, incentives for fixed-income investments will drop, and people will look for investments with higher returns.
Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E-Trade, told CNBC that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is “one step closer to a September rate cut,” especially after real average hourly earnings for workers slowed by 3.9% from the prior year.
The labor force participation rate also saw a slight increase from 62.5% in May to 62.6% in June. Despite these indicators suggesting higher odds of rate cuts, with a 90% consensus for at least one 0.25% rate cut by September, Bitcoin’s price remains below $60,000.
Traditional Markets vs. Bitcoin
While Bitcoin struggles, other markets show mixed performance. The S&P 500 is just 0.5% below its all-time high, and gold is trading 1.2% below its $2,450 record high from May 2024. The Russell 2000 small-cap index, which excludes the 1,000 largest US-listed companies, rose by 3% on July 11.
Adding to Bitcoin’s woes, the German government continues to offload nearly 50,000 bitcoins seized in 2013, worth almost $3 billion. Watcher Guru reports that the German government now has only $285 million worth of BTC left.
Due to these factors, the market feels bearish despite being in a bull market. Bitcoin is currently trading at $57,412, with an RSI value of 48.30. The Bitcoin chart shows significant resistance at $59,500, a strong zone where the MA100 is located. This 3.87% fall pushed BTC back into the triangle zone, indicating that bears currently hold a strong position.
Bitcoin’s market cap has dropped to $1.1 trillion, causing concern among investors. While retail investors face selling pressure, BTC whales and sharks are accumulating. Market stability might return once the German government concludes its BTC sales and the Mt. Gox repayment pressure eases. This stabilization could take another 1-2 months.
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