Bitcoin is back in the spotlight after a strong 9.4% surge over the past week, including a sharp 9.65% spike between April 21 and 22. But it’s not just the price action that’s turning heads. A deeper shift in investor behavior could signal something much bigger on the horizon.
Recent on-chain data is starting to look a lot like the calm before the storm that came before Bitcoin’s historic 2017 bull run.
According to crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr, the number of Bitcoin addresses depositing BTC to exchanges is steadily declining—a trend that’s been in motion since 2022. His analysis, based on the Bitcoin Exchange Depositing Addresses Count chart, shows:
This steady drop shows that fewer people are preparing to sell their Bitcoin. When coins are moved to exchanges, it usually means a sale is coming. So when deposits go down, it often signals growing confidence in holding instead of cashing out.
What makes this even more interesting is how similar the current trend is to what happened in late 2016. Back then, Bitcoin saw a 29.2% monthly gain, which was followed by a massive 1,369% price rally in 2017.
The number of exchange deposits today is at levels we haven’t seen since December 2016. According to Adler, this could mean we’re entering a similar phase now.
He sees the decline in deposits as a sign that more investors are adopting a HODL strategy — holding onto their coins rather than selling, expecting higher prices ahead.
In just the past two weeks, Bitcoin has climbed 13.3%. With fewer coins moving to exchanges and more investors holding firm, the price seems set for more upside.
If this really is a repeat of 2016, we might be looking at the early days of a major bull run. Bitcoin could be gearing up to test or even break past its previous all-time highs.
The signs are lining up: fewer exchange deposits, stronger price gains, and a rising wave of investor confidence. While nothing in crypto is certain, the current data is painting a clear picture.
If this trend continues, Bitcoin may be much closer to a breakout than most people think.
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