Today, over $14.21 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options are set to expire, an event that could shake up short-term price trends. Traders are closely watching how this massive expiry will impact market movement.
Bitcoin options expiring today have a total value of $12.075 billion, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.49, meaning more traders are betting on BTC going up rather than down. The “maximum pain” point—where most traders would lose money—is $85,000. Bitcoin is currently trading at around $85,960, so there’s a chance prices could dip slightly to match this level.
This quarterly expiry was significant, making up over 40% of the total open interest. BTC dominated with nearly 80% of the volume, while ETH accounted for 20%. For Ethereum, $2.135 billion in options are expiring, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.39 and a maximum pain level at $2,400. Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum’s volatility curve is flatter, suggesting that while traders expect movement, there’s no clear directional bias.
Other cryptos, like Solana, had only a small share. Despite concerns about Ethereum, its market structure remains stable. However, the first quarter ended weaker than expected, with volatility pushing prices toward the lower range.
This expiry is bigger than usual because it’s the last Friday of March, marking both a monthly and quarterly close. Crypto options trading platform Deribit schedules expiries on Fridays to align with traditional financial markets. Compared to last week’s expiry of just $1.8 billion in BTC options, today’s event is much larger, making it a key moment for market sentiment.
Analysts at Greeks.live suggest that most traders expect Bitcoin to retest lower levels between $84,000 and $85,000. However, Bitcoin has been stuck in a narrow trading range, meaning any big move could break this pattern. Some traders are watching resistance at $88,400 and strong support at $77,000.
Ethereum, on the other hand, is showing a high trading volume but less of a clear price direction. Traders might use this opportunity to adjust their strategies based on implied volatility (IV), which is currently fluctuating due to the quarterly expiry.
Traders are feeling extreme fear, as shown by the Fear & Greed Index at 33. While big investors (whales) are buying, a large BTC transfer by the U.S. government and today’s $16.5B options expiry could cause short-term price swings. Bitcoin needs to break $90,000 to stay bullish, but fear in the market is keeping traders cautious.
The Fear & Greed Index is at 33, indicating extreme fear, which may lead to cautious trading and potential short-term volatility.
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