Bitcoin continues trading within a well-defined parallel channel, repeatedly testing the upper boundary around $82,000 to $86,000 and facing consistent rejection. The technical concern is a bear flag formation developing since the drop from the $126,000 all-time high.
Analyst Gareth Soloway, who identified this resistance zone months ago, said the market has reached his target but has not broken through convincingly. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the full decline sits directly at current resistance, which he described as the line in the sand. A sustained move above it opens a test of $86,000 to $87,000. Failure keeps the bear flag intact with downside risk toward prior lows.
The probability of a downside resolution remains above 50% but has diminished as the flag pattern extends in duration, shifting from roughly 75% to below 70%. Soloway said he has already exited his Bitcoin and Solana positions at current levels.
Ethereum continues lagging broader market moves but a potential cup and handle formation is developing on the chart, projecting a move toward $2,700 if the pattern remains intact. The defined failure point is the trendline support currently holding the structure together. A break below it invalidates the setup and opens the door to a more significant decline.
XRP is pressing against a downward sloping trendline stretching back to July 2025, with confirmed touches in October 2025 and January 2026. Soloway said he remains long XRP with the failure point clearly defined at $1.38.
A confirmed break above the trendline projects upside toward $1.73 to $1.83. A break below $1.38 negates the setup entirely. The pattern offers what traders value most: a defined trigger, a clear failure level, and a measurable target.
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