Bitcoin has broken below the major trendline that supported the entire bull run.
Crypto analyst Nathan Sloan of Investing Made Simple laid out the key levels to watch and why the 4-year cycle suggests this crash may follow a familiar pattern.
After failing to reclaim $100,000, which flipped from support to resistance, Bitcoin flushed down past $70,000 and is currently trading around $65,845.
But this sell-off isn’t limited to crypto. Gold is correcting sharply, silver dropped 10% in a single day, and the NASDAQ is pulling back as well.
Sloan highlighted that averaging the 2017 and 2021 cycle tops closely predicted the exact market top this cycle. That makes the 4-year cycle harder to dismiss as a coincidence.
Bitcoin has now posted five consecutive red months since October. That has only happened once before, during the 2018 bear market, which saw six in a row. A relief rally is statistically overdue since Bitcoin has never posted more than six consecutive negative months.
Historically, cycle bottoms have landed around October.
Sloan outlined four price zones he considers important.
The $70,000 level, the previous all-time high from the 2021 cycle, has already been broken. Bitcoin is now trading well below what Sloan considers a strong long-term entry zone.
The $63,000 level, now less than 4% below current prices, would mark a 50% drawdown from the all-time high. At that level, simply returning to the prior high would mean a 2x return.
The 200-week moving average sits just below $60,000 and is rising. Sloan flagged this as a historically reliable level. Every major crypto crash has either touched or broken below this line before recovering.
“If you can get in between 60 and 70, if you can ignore all the pain and the fear over the next 3 to 6 months, you’ll likely do very, very well,” he said.
Sloan sees monetary policy as the strongest macro correlator for crypto. He compared the current setup to 2019, the last time the Fed pivoted, which saw a roughly 53% drawdown before recovery.
Also Read: Trump’s New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Could Cut Rates “Aggressively”, Says Analyst
His personal plan is to buy back in around the $63,000 level within the next month or two, accepting the risk of being early.
“The only downside for me is that I might be too early. So yes, Bitcoin could go sideways for months. It could even come down a little bit more,” he said.
Bitcoin has broken a key trendline, signaling a correction. However, historical 4-year cycle patterns suggest this is a typical, albeit sharp, pullback within a larger market cycle, not necessarily the end of the bull run.
Key support levels to watch are around $63,000 (a 50% drawdown) and the rising 200-week moving average near $60,000, a zone that has historically marked major cycle bottoms before recovery.
This broad market sell-off is largely driven by macroeconomic pressures and shifting Federal Reserve policy, which impacts risk assets like crypto and tech stocks alongside traditional safe havens.
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