Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, Managing Partner of Incrementum AG, recently joined David Lin for a discussion. During the conversation, Stoeferle addressed shifting sentiments towards gold as a safe haven asset in light of recent market dynamics.
He was asked about the perception of gold transitioning from a safe haven hedge to a more risk-on asset and its correlation with various sectors. Lin also noted its alignment with stocks, tech stocks, and notably, Bitcoin, indicating a broadening investor sentiment towards alternative investments.
Reflecting on current market perceptions of gold, Stoeferle shared his perspective on its value. Despite gold’s inflation-adjusted affordability compared to historical highs, he observed a prevalent skepticism among investors. Many, he noted, are inclined to consider selling rather than buying at present levels, reflecting subdued bullish sentiment in the Western markets.
Looking ahead, Stoeferle referenced analyst consensus forecasts from major Wall Street names, which predict modest future prices for gold. He pointed out median estimates of $2,000 for 2026 and $1,700 for 2028.
Despite prevailing sentiments, Stoeferle remained optimistic about gold’s long-term prospects. He discussed Incrementum AG’s projections, forecasting prices potentially exceeding $4,000 to $4,800 by 2030.
Stoeferle also opened up about the initial resistance faced from both the Bitcoin and gold communities. He noted the emotional nature surrounding these assets, describing Bitcoin as a teenager with its rapid evolution compared to gold’s millennia-long history.
Addressing recent market dynamics, Stoeferle acknowledged disappointment among some investors following Bitcoin’s recent performance but stressed the post-halving period as historically favorable. He anticipated Bitcoin to potentially outperform gold in the coming years, especially as institutional adoption continues to grow, marked by milestones such as ETF launches.
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