The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report lands today as Bitcoin struggles to stay above $74,000. BTC is down from around $81,195 at the start of November. Even U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $2.20 billion in net outflows since the beginning of the month.
With traders already cautious, the big question now is whether CPI can give Bitcoin a reason to bounce or push it lower.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release October CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET today. The report comes with an unusual gap, as the BLS will not publish the annual inflation rate because it did not collect October 2025 price data during the 43-day government shutdown.
Without an official year-over-year figure, traders will have to rely on estimates ranging from 3.6% to 4.0%. Looking at the last month’s official data, headline inflation rose 3.7% in September, up from 3.4% in August, while core inflation stood at 2.6%.
For the monthly figures, markets expect headline CPI to rise 0.3%, down from September’s 0.6%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to increase 0.2%, compared with 0.3% in the previous month.
For Bitcoin, the reaction will depend less on whether inflation simply falls and more on how far it moves from expectations.
A reading above 0.3% could strengthen expectations for another 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in December. Markets are already pricing in an 84% chance of a hike. That could put more pressure on Bitcoin.
If core inflation comes in below expectations, traders could get some relief. Lower inflation would reduce pressure on the Fed and could give buyers a reason to step back into Bitcoin.
Crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades sees the $72K – 75K range as an important support zone for Bitcoin. area for Bitcoin. Several major support levels meet in this zone, making it a possible place for BTC to stop falling and form a higher low.
Looking at the daily price chart, Bitcoin is testing the 0.5 Fibonacci level near $74,974. The next support sits around $72,040, close to the 0.618 Fibonacci level. BTC is also trading near the Bull Market Support Band and its 200-day moving average.
Daan said this was the price range he had been waiting for.
If Bitcoin has started a new bull market after rising from $58,000 to $87,000, holding this zone could help it form a higher low and continue its recovery. However, losing the $72,000–$75,000 range could weaken the bullish outlook.
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