In his latest blog post titled “Quid Pro Stablecoin,” Arthur Hayes delivers a sharp analysis of the current macroeconomic landscape and how it may affect the crypto market. He warns that crypto prices could move sideways—or slightly lower—between now and the Jackson Hole economic symposium in August.
Hayes believes a market correction is likely in the near term. With Bitcoin’s recent price surge, traders may take profits while waiting for clearer signals from the Federal Reserve. He highlights one key factor: if the U.S. Treasury begins replenishing its General Account (TGA), it could withdraw liquidity from the system, placing pressure on risk assets like crypto.
Drawing from past market cycles and sentiment shifts, Hayes projects a temporary dip in Bitcoin’s price to around $90,000, potentially flushing out weak hands before the next leg up.
He also warns that this liquidity squeeze could create a “summer lull”—a period of sideways or downward movement—until at least the Jackson Hole event in late August. If macro conditions worsen, Hayes may reduce Maelstrom’s Bitcoin exposure, though the fund has already exited its illiquid altcoin positions.
What makes this cycle different, according to Hayes, is the growing role of traditional banks in crypto. With the U.S. government signaling support for stablecoins—especially after the Senate passed the GENIUS Act—banks like JPMorgan may soon launch their own USD-backed tokens.
Unlike existing stablecoins like USDC or Tether, these bank-issued tokens would come with full regulatory backing and access to the Federal Reserve system.
Hayes emphasizes that the stablecoin push is not just about consumer safety—it’s also a strategy for the U.S. government to exert greater control over crypto’s monetary flows. This shift could change how liquidity moves within the crypto market and force issuers to meet stricter reserve requirements or obtain special licenses.
Hayes calls these developments a “game-changer.” He explains that regulated bank-issued stablecoins would allow banks to channel retail deposits into short-term U.S. Treasuries without violating capital rules. This could act like a new form of quantitative easing, injecting fresh liquidity into markets—without any official intervention from the Federal Reserve.
Hayes estimates that if even a portion of the $17 trillion currently sitting in U.S. bank deposits flows into these new stablecoins, it could result in $6.8 trillion in demand for Treasury securities. This massive wave of liquidity wouldn’t just stay confined to bonds—it could spill over into crypto and tech stocks, potentially igniting the next major bull market.
As of July 3, 2025, the crypto market is showing mixed movements. Bitcoin is holding steady around $107,000, recovering from recent dips below $100,000. Ethereum has seen a notable surge, reaching $2,600 USDT, while altcoins like XRP, Solana, and TRON are showing relative strength. This suggests some market resilience, despite Hayes’ prediction of a “summer lull.”
Arthur Hayes’ predictions are considered bold and often contrarian, yet he openly acknowledges when he’s wrong. While his short-term calls can be volatile, his longer-term forecasts, such as Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2028, are based on his macroeconomic analysis of global liquidity, U.S. debt, and the potential for a new form of quantitative easing through regulated stablecoins. Many analysts consider his macro view influential, even if his exact price targets are ambitious.
The “Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act,” or GENIUS Act, is U.S. legislation passed by the Senate (June 17, 2025) to create a comprehensive federal framework for regulating payment stablecoins. It signals government support while setting stricter reserve and licensing requirements, potentially favoring bank-issued stablecoins.
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