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Altcoin Season or Fakeout? Analyst Warns This Might Be a Short-Lived Alt Window

Published by
Vignesh S G and Zameer Attar

Bitcoin is leading the crypto rally once again, surging to a new all-time high of $123,000 earlier this month. So far in July, BTC has gained 9.79%, and in the last seven days alone, it jumped by 8.8%, reigniting investor excitement across the market.

But with Bitcoin dominance rising, the big question now is: Will altcoins follow—or is this another fakeout?

Bitcoin Breaks Out to $123K

Bitcoin’s bullish momentum continues, marking a 15.9% gain between June 23 and July 15. This rally pushed BTC from $107K to $123K, a 14.95% jump, making it the biggest breakout of Q3 so far.

In Q2 2025, Bitcoin recorded an impressive 29.9% return, supported by:

  • April: +14.2%
  • May: +11.1%
  • June: +2.40%

So far in Q3, Bitcoin is already up 9.69%—and counting.

Also Read : Bitcoin Price Prediction After $123K Peak – Is $130K the Next Target?

Altseason or Just a Short Window?

Popular analyst VirtualBacon shared a detailed thread on X, analyzing BTC’s current breakout and what it means for altcoins.

According to him, this may not be a full-blown altseason, but rather a short “altcoin rotation window”. Historically, after each major BTC breakout since mid-2023, altcoins typically rallied for 3–5 weeks before Bitcoin resumed dominance.

Also Read : From $4 to $10, This Altcoin Could Explode 3X in Crypto Bull Run 2025

Current BTC Dominance: A Warning Sign?

At present, Bitcoin dominance sits at 64.34%, up from 57.59% at the start of the year. This continued rise suggests money is still flowing into Bitcoin first. The only pullback was a 4.83% drop in May, which quickly recovered.

VirtualBacon emphasizes that a sustained altcoin season needs BTC dominance to decline, something that hasn’t happened yet. But short-term opportunities may still exist.

Altcoins to Watch Now

VirtualBacon highlights several altcoins with breakout potential:

  • BNB: Near cycle lows
  • LINK: Undervalued with strong fundamentals
  • ADA: Forming a macro double-bottom
  • TRX: Quiet strength
  • DOGE: Known for rallying post-BTC breakouts

He also notes Solana ecosystem tokens are showing strength:

  • Bonk: +110.9% (14 days)
  • PENGU: +112.9% (14 days)

Emerging Layer-1s and smart contract platforms are also on the radar:

  • SUI, Aptos (APT), and Avalanche (AVAX)—with AVAX yet to rally since October 2023.

Meanwhile, narrative-driven tokens like TAO (14x in 5 months) and PEPE (6.6x in 3 months) have shown what’s possible during strong Bitcoin uptrends.

What Happens If Bitcoin Hits $150K?

VirtualBacon predicts that if BTC touches $150K, the top 20 altcoins could explode in value, as institutional and retail investors look for the next big opportunity.

While Bitcoin leads the charge, altcoins may have a short-term window to rally. Whether this turns into a full-scale altseason will depend on Bitcoin dominance, overall market sentiment, and how investors rotate capital in the coming weeks.

Vignesh S G and Zameer Attar

Vignesh is a young journalist with a decade of experience. A proud alumnus of IIJNM, Bengaluru, he spent six years as a Sub-Editor for a leading business magazine, published from Kerala. His interest in futuristic technologies took him to a US-based software company specialising in Web3, Blockchain and AI. This stint inspired him to view the future of journalism through the lens of next generation technologies. Now, he covers the crypto scene for Coinpedia, uncovering a vibrant new world where technology and journalism converge.

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