Altcoin Season or Fakeout? Analyst Warns This Might Be a Short-Lived Alt Window

Bitcoin is leading the crypto rally once again, surging to a new all-time high of $123,000 earlier this month. So far in July, BTC has gained 9.79%, and in the last seven days alone, it jumped by 8.8%, reigniting investor excitement across the market.

But with Bitcoin dominance rising, the big question now is: Will altcoins follow—or is this another fakeout?

Bitcoin Breaks Out to $123K

Bitcoin’s bullish momentum continues, marking a 15.9% gain between June 23 and July 15. This rally pushed BTC from $107K to $123K, a 14.95% jump, making it the biggest breakout of Q3 so far.

In Q2 2025, Bitcoin recorded an impressive 29.9% return, supported by:

• April: +14.2%
  
• May: +11.1%
  
• June: +2.40%

So far in Q3, Bitcoin is already up 9.69%—and counting.

Altseason or Just a Short Window?

Popular analyst VirtualBacon shared a detailed thread on X, analyzing BTC’s current breakout and what it means for altcoins.

According to him, this may not be a full-blown altseason, but rather a short “altcoin rotation window”. Historically, after each major BTC breakout since mid-2023, altcoins typically rallied for 3–5 weeks before Bitcoin resumed dominance.

Current BTC Dominance: A Warning Sign?

At present, Bitcoin dominance sits at 64.34%, up from 57.59% at the start of the year. This continued rise suggests money is still flowing into Bitcoin first. The only pullback was a 4.83% drop in May, which quickly recovered.

VirtualBacon emphasizes that a sustained altcoin season needs BTC dominance to decline, something that hasn’t happened yet. But short-term opportunities may still exist.

Altcoins to Watch Now

VirtualBacon highlights several altcoins with breakout potential:

• BNB: Near cycle lows
  
• LINK: Undervalued with strong fundamentals
  
• ADA: Forming a macro double-bottom
  
• TRX: Quiet strength
  
• DOGE: Known for rallying post-BTC breakouts

He also notes Solana ecosystem tokens are showing strength:

• Bonk: +110.9% (14 days)
  
• PENGU: +112.9% (14 days)

Emerging Layer-1s and smart contract platforms are also on the radar:

• SUI, Aptos (APT), and Avalanche (AVAX)—with AVAX yet to rally since October 2023.

Meanwhile, narrative-driven tokens like TAO (14x in 5 months) and PEPE (6.6x in 3 months) have shown what’s possible during strong Bitcoin uptrends.

What Happens If Bitcoin Hits $150K?

VirtualBacon predicts that if BTC touches $150K, the top 20 altcoins could explode in value, as institutional and retail investors look for the next big opportunity.

While Bitcoin leads the charge, altcoins may have a short-term window to rally. Whether this turns into a full-scale altseason will depend on Bitcoin dominance, overall market sentiment, and how investors rotate capital in the coming weeks.