Altcoin season hasn’t arrived just yet, but the signals are starting to build. The Altcoin Season Index currently sits at 46 out of 100, meaning while many altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin, the threshold of 75% is still required before a true “altseason” can be declared.
According to analysts at Bitfinex, the long-anticipated altseason won’t kick off until more crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) hit the market.
Bitcoin dominance has already slipped 6% over the past month to around 58.5%, but analysts argue that the rally won’t broaden until investors gain easier access to altcoins through regulated ETF products.
In their latest report, Bitfinex explained that these ETFs would bring “sustained, price-agnostic demand”, driving the kind of institutional inflows that Bitcoin and Ethereum already enjoy. Without such catalysts, a “rising tide lifts all boats” scenario across altcoins remains unlikely in the near term.
For now, the broader crypto market remains cautious. Bitfinex described the trajectory as “muted,” noting that while capital inflows are still positive, investor appetite is softer compared to the aggressive demand seen during previous all-time-high rallies. This is limiting altcoin momentum despite Bitcoin’s recent volatility.
Not all experts agree. David Duong, head of research at Coinbase Institutional, suggested that current market conditions could actually set the stage for a full-scale altcoin season as early as September.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have now been trading for more than 19 months since their January 2024 debut, while spot Ether ETFs have been live for nearly 13 months. The spotlight is now shifting to possible ETFs for Solana, XRP, and even memecoins.
The U.S. SEC recently delayed rulings on several filings, including:
This suggests approval for broader altcoin ETFs may still take time.
While Bitfinex expects altseason later in the year, others are more bullish in the short term. Duong sees a potential breakout in September, and analyst Michaël van de Poppe argues that the latest market correction is an opportunity to reposition, especially in Ethereum and altcoins heading into Q4.
Adding fuel to speculation, Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas hinted that beyond traditional products, we could see a wave of active crypto ETFs, including even a memecoin-only ETF by 2026.
Altcoin season occurs when altcoins outperform Bitcoin, usually tracked by the Altcoin Season Index, which hits 75+ during true altseasons.
Crypto ETFs provide easier, regulated access to altcoins, driving institutional inflows and broader demand needed to start altcoin season.
Some analysts predict a breakout as early as September, but wider altseason likely needs more ETF approvals and stronger market demand.
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