It’s been a brutal cycle for altcoins. Bitcoin has taken center stage, dominating the narrative and capital flows, while altcoin holders continue to watch their portfolios stagnate, or worse, bleed.
While Bitcoin continues to surge and is sticking above $100k, altcoins have only seen two brief rallies in March and November 2024.
But according to crypto analyst Crypto Decoder, several under-the-radar signals now suggest that a broader alt season could be setting up, even if it’s not here just yet.
One of the most important signs comes from the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). Crypto Decoder highlights that when the dollar weakens, altcoins often gain massive momentum. In 2017, a sharp drop in the DXY led to a 285x explosion in altcoin market cap. In 2021, a similar move sparked a 17x rally.
This pattern ties closely to U.S. monetary policy, when the Federal Reserve loosens financial conditions and borrowing gets easier, investors typically move into riskier assets. Bitcoin is usually the first stop, followed by altcoins.
Right now, the DXY is showing signs of fading strength and has failed to break above the 109 mark. If it falls below key support levels, it could trigger renewed interest in altcoins. Still, Decoder cautions that a real shift in Fed policy will likely be needed before we see any explosive price action.
Another strong but lesser-known signal is the copper-to-gold ratio. This metric reflects investor sentiment. When copper outperforms gold, it suggests a growing risk appetite in the market. According to the analyst, the ratio has just bounced from multi-year lows and climbed above its 20-week EMA, an early signal that conditions are becoming favorable for altcoins, much like what happened before the 2017 and 2020 rallies.
Ethereum’s recent performance also adds to the bullish case. ETH has started outperforming Bitcoin for the first time since late 2022. This comeback, powered by over $2 billion in ETF inflows since May 2025, hints at growing institutional interest. Since ETH holds over 50% of DeFi TVL and drives liquidity for altcoins, its strength often leads to broader altcoin gains.
Although August and September may bring more sideways action, analyst believes the real opportunity may arrive in Q4. If the Fed cuts rates in September, and macro signals hold up, October could mirror past post-halving rallies.
Supporting this view, analyst Michaël van de Poppe notes that the Altcoin Season Index has once again bottomed in June, just like it did before previous major alt rallies. With the bull cycle in motion and easing expected, he sees potential for a much bigger altcoin surge by Q4, like it happened in 2023.
Analysts expect a major altcoin rally to begin in Q4 2025, especially if the Fed cuts rates and macro signals remain bullish.
A weakening dollar often boosts altcoins, as it signals looser monetary policy and rising investor risk appetite.
Altcoin seasons typically follow Bitcoin rallies, DXY drops, Fed rate cuts, and rising ETH dominance.
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