The ETF analysts at Bloomberg are out with their latest forecast for which class of Crypto spot ETF will get the nod, and it appears that Litecoin, Solana, and Baskets/Index funds are in the lead. According to James Seyffart, these three classes currently have a 90% likelihood of receiving FDA approval in 2025, according to their updated prediction.
The applications for these ETFs have already been submitted by big companies involving Grayscale, Bitwise, Hashdex, Franklin, and VanEck. These filings recently became officially recognized by the SEC and final decision dates are now set between mid-2025 and end of 2025.
However, XRP isn’t too far behind, with analysts giving it an 85% chance of approval in 2025. Dogecoin follows with an 80% probability, while other assets such as Cardano, Polkadot, HBAR, and Avalanche are estimated to have a 75% chance of getting the green light.
Newer assets like Sui are rated a 60% chance and that Tron’s ETF filing is unlikely to be looked at until 2026. Bloomberg’s analysts calculated the odds by analyzing the past acknowledgment of applications by the SEC, the actual deadlines the firm has to make a final decision and on the odds of those cryptos being considered commodities, which could facilitate the approving process.
The U.S. SEC could green-light ETFs following broad crypto indexes already next month. And among the individual cryptocurrencies, Solana seems to be setting the pace. Analysts say Solana could be the next big asset to have a spot ETF, trailing Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The update arrives as seven issuers have already submitted applications for spot Solana ETFs. Regulators could also step in early on Solana and staking-based ETF filings, the report adds. This has been spurred on in part by Rex-Osprey’s recent pivot to create workarounds to the legal restrictions, through which the issuer has launched staking products for Solana and Ethereum.
“Get ready for a potential Alt Coin ETF Summer with Solana likely leading the way,” Eric Balchunas wrote.
Crypto spot ETFs offer easier access to crypto without direct ownership, enhanced liquidity, and regulatory oversight, simplifying investment for broader audiences.
Final SEC decision dates for many altcoin ETFs are expected between mid-2025 and late 2025, with some potentially delayed into early 2026.
Bloomberg analysts assign higher odds to Solana largely due to their assessment that it is more likely to be deemed a commodity by the SEC, which simplifies the approval process compared to assets potentially classified as securities (like XRP’s ongoing legal battle) or those with less established regulatory frameworks (like Dogecoin). Additionally, Solana’s robust network activity and institutional interest also contribute.
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