3 U.S. Economic Data Reports That Could Impact Bitcoin Price This Week

This week could be a turning point for crypto markets – not because of a new ETF or token hype, but thanks to three major U.S. economic updates that could shake up the Fed’s next move.

With retail sales, jobless claims, and the FOMC rate decision all dropping within days, Bitcoin traders are watching the macro landscape closely. If signs of a slowing economy get louder, rate-cut bets go up and that’s usually good news for Bitcoin.

Let’s look at what’s coming.

Retail Sales Dip Could Spark Talk of Rate Cuts

Retail sales data is due this week, and economists aren’t optimistic. They expect a 0.6% drop from April to May, signaling that U.S. consumers may be pulling back.

That matters more than it sounds. Consumer spending drives about 70% of the U.S. economy, and if it’s losing steam, it strengthens the case for the Fed to cut interest rates sooner rather than later.

Some of the slowdown may be tied to renewed uncertainty around Trump’s tariffs. But for Bitcoin, the takeaway is simple: weaker sales = higher chance of rate cuts = potential BTC boost.

On the flip side, if retail sales come in stronger than expected, the dollar could gain and Bitcoin might take a hit short term.

Jobless Claims Rise, and That’s a Crypto Signal Too

Also on the calendar: initial jobless claims, moved to Wednesday due to the Juneteenth holiday. Economists expect a rise to 250,000, up from 248,000 last week – already the highest since October.

It may seem like a small shift, but for markets, it’s a big signal. A rising number of people filing for unemployment shows that the labor market is starting to crack and that puts pressure on the Fed to pivot.

As one analyst wrote, “The labor market is CRACKING… Weakness = Fed pivot = crypto moon.” That sentiment is picking up across the board.

All Eyes on the Fed Rate Decision

The big one is Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there’s a 96.7% chance the Fed will keep rates steady at 4.25% to 4.5%. No surprises expected, but if one does come, it could move markets fast.

The other wildcard? Trump.

He’s been vocal about pushing the Fed to act faster. After last week’s CPI data, he posted: “Fed should lower one full point. Would pay much less interest on debt coming due. So important.”

The market still expects cuts to start in September. But if the Fed blinks early, Bitcoin could rally hard. Lower rates make non-yielding assets like crypto more attractive.

Bitcoin Already on the Move

Bitcoin is already showing some signs of action. It’s up nearly 1% in the past few hours, trading at $106,576 at the time of writing.

It’s a subtle move, but traders know what’s coming. If this week’s economic data confirms a slowdown, and the Fed hints at a shift, we could be looking at a strong move from BTC.

In short: the macro signals are lining up. And in crypto, that’s when the big moves tend to happen.