Durov’s Arrest: A Threat To Toncoin Or Chance For Growth?

The recent arrest of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov has been one of the most talked-about events in recent days, particularly impacting the volatility of TON cryptocurrency and overall market sentiment. What are the implications of this event, and what should investors expect now that Durov has been released but remains under supervision in France? Sergey Zhdanov, CEO of the EXMO.com cryptocurrency exchange, offers his analysis.

On 24th August, news broke that Telegram CEO Pavel Durov had been arrested at Le Bourget Airport in Paris. His detention came after OFMIN, a special police unit, issued a warrant for his arrest.

Durov was accused of not doing enough to combat illegal activities on Telegram and of insufficient cooperation with law enforcement agencies. Additionally, India is investigating Telegram and, depending on the outcome, could even ban the platform in the country.

French President Emmanuel Macron insisted that Durov’s arrest was not politically motivated. “France remains committed to freedom of expression, innovation, and entrepreneurship,” Macron wrote in a post on X (formerly Twitter). “This will continue to be the case.”

On 28th August, the investigating judge released Pavel Durov from police custody on a five million euro bail, though he was officially charged. According to the Paris Prosecutor’s Office, Durov is under supervision and is not allowed to leave France. He must report to the police twice a week.

Reaction of Toncoin

While TON cryptocurrency is no longer legally connected to Pavel Durov – he handed over the ton.org domain and GitHub repository to The Open Network (TON) community of developers on 29th June 2021 – the market reacted swiftly to his arrest.

During the peak of the situation, TON lost over $2.5 billion in market capitalisation. Over three days, the coin dropped 25.8%, from $6.86 to $5.09. However, the price recovered slightly a few days later, stabilising around $5.50.

The immediate price drop after Durov’s arrest was driven by panic selling and liquidations by short-term traders. However, long-term holders largely stood firm, with the community rallying to support Durov.

Following his release on bail, TON attempted to test the $6 level, briefly showing a rise of more than 12%. However, overall uncertainty brought the price back to around $5.59.”

What’s Next?

Despite Durov’s release, the situation remains complex and uncertain, with much speculation circulating online. Following only official sources and trust analysis from reliable outlets is advisable.

Predicting subsequent developments is challenging.

If the charges against Pavel Durov are officially dropped or his sentence is minimal, we can expect positive movements in the TON exchange rate. This was already evident from the price increase following the news of his release from custody and posting bail on 27th-28th August. According to EXMO.com analysts, there’s a strong chance the coin’s price will recover and climb back above $7. If a full-fledged altcoin season begins, TON could even reach $10, in which case traders and investors should be prepared to buy.

However, short-term traders should watch the $5 level closely if the situation takes an unexpected turn. This is a critical point – if broken, it could lead to a price drop to the $3.50 – 4.50 range.

One thing is certain: TON’s volatility is likely to increase soon, testing long-term traders’ resilience while offering short-term traders opportunities for significant gains.

Conclusion

Pavel Durov’s arrest has sent shockwaves through TON’s price and the broader crypto market. Many prominent figures have expressed their support for Durov, including Elon Musk, who tweeted with the hashtag #FreePavel several times. The crypto community has rallied, calling for the charges to be dropped and the situation clarified.

In the coming days, TON’s volatility is expected to remain high, providing opportunities for many players in the crypto market. Although Durov has been released, the legal proceedings are far from over.