Social Security’s retirement trust fund is set to run out of reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032, according to the program’s trustees, after which incoming payroll taxes would cover only about 78% of scheduled benefits. The combined retirement and disability funds are projected to run dry in the third quarter of 2034, leaving enough to pay about 83%. Payments would not stop, but benefits would shrink unless lawmakers change how the program is funded. New research from the AARP Public Policy Institute blames a shrinking tax base, not just an ageing population. Wages subject to Social Security tax fell from 41% of US GDP in 1983 to 34% in 2025, as more income now comes from business profits and investments. Had the 1983 share held, the program could have collected an extra $10.8 trillion and paid full benefits until 2059. AARP said raising or removing the payroll tax cap could close up to 67% of the long-term funding gap, while taxing some investment income could cover another 25%.
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