Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged despite Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech. The bank forecasts August core CPI to rise 0.23% month over month and core PCE to increase 0.20%, supporting a patient approach. PCE revisions could also lower annual core inflation to about 3.1% from 3.3%. Morgan Stanley sees Warsh’s rhetoric as preserving policy flexibility rather than signaling an imminent rate-hiking cycle.
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