Fed Rate Hike: Morgan Stanley Expects Hold Despite Warsh’s Hawkish Tone

Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged despite Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech. The bank forecasts August core CPI to rise 0.23% month over month and core PCE to increase 0.20%, supporting a patient approach. PCE revisions could also lower annual core inflation to about 3.1% from 3.3%. Morgan Stanley sees Warsh’s rhetoric as preserving policy flexibility rather than signaling an imminent rate-hiking cycle.