Ripple Vs SEC Lawsuit Nearing Finale: Decoding the Possible Outcomes

Author: Sohrab Khawas

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    Ripple and the SEC recently asked the judge presiding over their lawsuit to schedule a date in January 2023 by which time interested parties could submit their support or opposing briefs.

    The parties want to make January 18 the deadline for opposing non-party sealing applications, which has also been verified by legal expert James K. Filan.

    A number of legal experts have previously stated that the current circumstances of this case demonstrate that the two sides may settle the lawsuit at any time.

    However, a major crypto participant has been heavily criticized recently for apparently spreading rumors. Here’s the juice. 

    Charles Hoskinson’s “Rumors”

    Charles Hoskinson, the founder of Global and Cardano, revealed in an unexpected Ask Me Anything (AMA) session on Saturday that he had heard reports of a Ripple settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission on December 15.

    Hoskinson stated, “I’ve heard speculations that the Ripple case would be resolved on December 15 and we’ll just have to wait and watch, which might have disastrous repercussions for the sector.”

    On the other hand, Eleanor Terrett, a reporter for FOX Business, tweeted, “It’s not true,” in response to these allegations. The reporter confirmed in a different tweet that there is no validity to the story, according to persons familiar with the situation.

    Many people view Hoskinson’s statements as unfounded because the journalist has refuted reports of a Ripple settlement with the SEC twice in a few months. According to FOX Business, a settlement is slated to go down on November 15th, but the reporter said that’s not true.

    David Gokhshtein’s Ripple vs. SEC Worst-Case Scenario

    David Gokhshtein, Founder of Gokhstein Media, who wants to see Ripple succeed, has said that settling with the SEC would be the worst possible outcome of the litigation, as it would not result in regulatory certainty for the whole U.S. crypto business.

    The leading Silicon Valley blockchain startup ought to win the lawsuit and not settle, Gokhshtein argued, based on his fears about the future of the industry. 

    Moving along the same vein, Jeremy Hogan offered his thoughts on the ongoing court case and hinted at four potential resolutions to the Ripple dispute.

    Decoding the Lawsuit’s 4 Possible Outcomes

    Attorney Jeremy Hogan has forecasted probable outcomes before the verdict.

    • Hogan said Ripple may win if the summary judgment says XRP was not a security. Also, Ripple has no legal duties to XRP buyers.
    • He warned that despite public perception, Ripple may lose the suit. Ripple’s risk of loss is around 30%, he said.
    • Hogan said there’s a 19.1% possibility the judge will split the baby’ and not rule in favor of either party.
    • The attorney highlighted that judges often issue surprise verdicts in litigation.

    Wrapping up: A Summary

    If the court rules in favor of Ripple, the value of XRP is likely to increase. However, if the case goes against the company, XRP may still recover. Recent developments in the crypto market have caused XRP’s growth to slow down, and without positive news from Ripple, XRP remains below the $0.40 support level. If XRP manages to break through this level, bulls will need to push it up to $0.45.

    Both the crypto industry and the SEC have a vested interest in the outcome of the lawsuit. The sector hopes that Ripple will win, while the SEC wants to use the case as an opportunity to crack down on crypto businesses. If Ripple is successful in the lawsuit, it is possible that U.S. lawmakers will take action to provide clearer regulations for the crypto market or assign the CFTC to monitor the industry.

    It is possible that the lawsuit may be resolved soon, though it is difficult to predict the exact outcome.

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