The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission may easily presume the crypto market which is unready of handling a large-scale investment vehicle like Bitcoin ETF. It is actually based on the wild volatility in prices of major cryptocurrencies and the lack of surveillance in small markets.
Jake Chervinsky who is a government enforcement defense & securities litigation attorney at Kobre & Kim, said that while the probability of Bitcoin ETF increases, there exists only 10% chances for the approval of ETF.
20/ My prediction is based largely on the manipulation issue. I think the chance of ETF approval will go up over time as market structure continues to develop & more surveillance-sharing agreements are entered.
The question is: how high can it go before the February 27 deadline?
— Jake Chervinsky (@jchervinsky) December 10, 2018
Does Bitcoin ETF rejection really affect the market?
Usually, during both bear and bull markets, any event or a catalyst will not affect the crypto market. Considering the bull market, regardless of negative events and news coverage, also the overwhelming demand for crypto may lead to the increase in the prices of cryptocurrencies. When Nasdaq, Fidelity and NYSE are considered, positive announcements have a greater impact on the prices of the digital assets.
The Bitcoin ETF approval on the crypto market is still unclear as no one has any idea regarding the approval. Several reports claim that if only 10% of the stock market investors invest in Bitcoin ETF, the Bitcoin prices may surge to a certain level.
But, as seen such an ambiguous prediction is nothing unique than a startup thinking “China has 1.3 billion people, 10 percent of that is 130 million, so we can at least secure 130 million customers.” Accepting this theoretical startegy, some of the startups received investment from venture capital firms but lost our in the Chinese market.
Frequently, such “if” predictions occur in crypto market. Suppose if 10% of the offshore banking sector invests in Bitcoin, the dominant cryptocurrency may be worth $3 trillion. And if 10% of gold investors invest in Bitcoin, the asset may be worth $700 billion. But these numbers in no way represent real figures.
There are chances that the rejection of the Bitcoin ETF approval may affect the market. Only if the price of Bitcoin continues to increase in anticipation of the announcement.
The Situation of Winklevoss ETF in July
U.S. SEC rejected the Winklevoss ETF on July 26. During this time span the Bitcoin price didn’t experience a substantial move on a weekly basis. There was a drastic change from $8200 to $8000 but luckily recovered to $8200 on the very next day.
Bitcoin price may increase as the February deadline of the VanEck ETF comes closer. But the market may not lose more than the value it added in anticipation of the ETF. Unless the Bitcoin price increases due to ETF approval.
Although the Bitcoin ETF is approved or not, an immediate fluctuation in the Bitcoin price cannot be expected.