A big XRP ETF decision is due tomorrow (June 17). With Ripple pushing for a legal settlement and the SEC set to decide on Franklin Templeton’s ETF filing, XRP could be ready for a parabolic move if things move in its favour.
The odds for a spot XRP ETF approval on Polymarket surged to 98% in June and have slightly dipped to 88% this week.
The SEC is expected to announce its decision on Franklin Templeton’s spot XRP ETF tomorrow, on June 17, which could be a major turning point for XRP and the broader crypto market.
Bloomberg analysts now predict an 85% chance for XRP ETF approval this year. Top firms like Bitwise and Grayscale are also waiting for approvals. Grayscale’s XRP ETF decision is likely due by October 18, while ProShares has requested a final decision by June 25. If approved, the SEC won’t be able to delay ProShares’ ETF beyond that date.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart says the recent XRP ETF delays are normal, not surprising. The SEC usually takes the full review period, with most final decisions expected in October. He also said that even with a crypto-friendly SEC, early approvals would be “out of the norm”.
Nate Geraci, the President of Crypto ETF Store, explained how Crypto ETFs are evolving fast with staking, in-kind redemptions, and altcoin ETFs on the way.
Ripple and the SEC filed a second joint motion on June 12, asking Judge Torres to lift the XRP sales ban to institutions and reduce the $125M fine. Legal experts are watching closely.
While some believe that Judge Torres could approve the motion by June 19, others remain cautious. Pro-crypto lawyers like John Deaton give the motion a 70% chance of success, while Bill Morgan warns that the court may push back again.
An approval could clear the way for an XRP spot ETF, with Franklin Templeton’s deadline in focus. But with the ongoing legal battle, the SEC may likely delay its decision.
XRP is currently trading at $2.23, up 3.2% in the last 24 hours. With legal clarity and ETF approval lining up, a big breakout could be near for XRP. But any delays or setbacks may lead to a short-term sell-off.
An approval could trigger a “buy the news” rally, prompting long positions. A delay, though common, might lead to short-term sell-offs, suggesting a cautious or “sell the rumor” approach for some traders.
The main legal hurdle is Judge Torres’s approval of Ripple’s settlement request with the SEC (lifting sales ban, reducing fine). While a high chance of success, legal uncertainty remains until a final court order.
An XRP ETF approval would legitimize altcoins for institutional investors, setting a precedent for other crypto-based ETFs. This could drive significant capital inflows beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, accelerating broader altcoin adoption and diversification.
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